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Inflation ExpectationsBy Tom Graff
8:08 a.m. EDT JPMorgan is out with a fascinating survey of inflation expectations. Unlike the more widely followed surveys, this one was given to investment professionals around the world and asked them about inflation views for the U.S., the U.K. and the euro zone. These kinds of surveys are more pertinent to traders, because they get more directly at the question of what's priced into markets. The results are very interesting:
- A majority of investors expect "above-target" inflation in the U.S. and U.K. Views for the eurozone are mixed.
- U.S.-based investors expect more U.S. inflation than foreign investors do. That speaks volumes about foreign willingness to participate in the U.S. Treasury market.
- Smaller investors and those primarily investing in equities are most worried about inflation. Bond investors are less worried. What that's telling you is that people who are primarily charged with following interest rates (and thus inflation) are more sanguine. Those for whom inflation is typically a secondary concern have higher expectations.
Morning PrepBy Ken Wolff
8:12 a.m. EDT We are trading down on the backs of disappointing earnings from Amazon ( AMZN) and Microsoft ( MSFT). The PowerShares QQQ Trust ( QQQQ) is currently down from $39.35 to $38.97, and usually in a bull market, gaps down get bought.