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1.Advance-Decline Line Is Breaking Out


By Ron Insana
3:57 p.m. EDT

The cumulative NYSE advance-decline line is breaking out. While I'd like to see a dramatic uptick in the number of individual stocks making new 52-week highs, the new high in this closely followed breadth indicator is extremely important.

If coupled with continued in advances in the Dow transports, a break through the upper Bollinger band and continued leadership from financials and technology, we can stop worrying about whether this is a "real bull market" or just a bear market bounce.

NYSE Advance-Decline Line
NeoTicker EOD

This chart is generated by subtracting the NYSE Composite declines from that day's advances. The blue line plots the cumulative total. The 20-day exponential average is the red line, the green line is a 20-day Donchian channel.

Onward and upward!

2. Steeper My Yield Curve To Thee


By Howard Simons
3:17 p.m. EDT I spent a little time this morning with a reporter doing a personal finance story on bond laddering and suggested retail investors should weight their exposure to the shorter end of the yield curve, generally good advice in a steep yield curve environment.

This week's action is telling. After six years, all Treasuries rose more than 30 basis points; inside the one-year, the changes were -0.3 basis points for the three-month and 2.3 basis points for the six-month.

Whatever gain you can make on coupon income at longer maturities can be lost in a heartbeat if long-term rates rise. The modified duration of the 3.125% Treasury due May 15, 2019 is 8.3; this means the expected loss for 100 basis-point rise in yield is 8.3% of the bond's price.

If Anirvan's macro forecast is correct, we should see short-term rates rise. Keeping your exposure short will minimize the long-dated price risk and allow you to ride short-term rates higher if and when they do move higher.

New Highs for Mattel


By Gary Morrow
3:04 p.m. EDT Mattel ( MAT) is trading at new highs for the year following this morning's earnings report. The company reported EPS of 6 vs. last year's 2 cents along, with a drop in net sales of 19%.

Investors are very happy with the news and bidding up the stock on heavy volume, up 6.5% the day after a breakaway gap higher open lifted it above heavy resistance near $16.85. Mattel began the year at this level and spent the first quarter well below it.

The stock began a strong recovery in early April back up to its 200-day moving average for the first time in eight months. After a shallow pullback, Mattel took off with a 5.5% jump on May 31. The week-long rally lifted the stock back up to its January highs only to fade again at overhead resistance.

MAT Daily (NYSE): Mattel
chart
Source: TradeStation

The breakout action today has convincingly taken out this supply area and will now act as solid support in the near future. I expect $16.30 to $17.00 to hold on a pullback. I believe Mattel will make a run at $20.00 within the next few months. I will be waiting for a shallow selloff to get in.


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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.

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