Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
  • a gain in oil's loss,
  • the perils of careless chatter, and
  • a trade in tech.
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Oil's Loss Is Consumer Plays' Gain
Posted at 2:16 p.m. EDT, July 7, 2009

Sure the consumer is weak. No kidding. Tell me something -- in the immortal words of Chris Matthews and our own Doug Kass -- I don't know.

But how about this -- what happens if oil goes to where it was before the big manipulation? What if it goes to $45?

That means you can make a lot more money on the oil-user side: retail like Kohls ( KSS), J.C. Penney's ( JCP) and Macy's ( M); restaurants like Brinker ( EAT) and Darden ( DRI); apparel like Jones ( JNY), VF Corp. and Nike ( NKE); as well as anything that goes into Best Buy ( BBY).

You also get some terrific pin action in anything that needs to be delivered -- all packaged goods -- and anything that uses plastic: Procter & Gamble ( PG), Colgate ( CL) (already on the move) and, of course, Pepsi ( PEP), which reports this week. Kellogg's ( K) fuel costs exceed its grain costs per box of cereal.

Of course, the problem is you feel the decline in oil first as Exxon Mobil ( XOM), Chevron ( CVX), ConocoPhillips ( COP) and BP ( BP) are now hugely weighted in the market. And we don't know if $45 is right. We just know that that's the level the oil stocks are signaling.

You want the pure play? Take a look at Cracker Barrel ( CBRL): killed with higher oil prices as it is levered more to gasoline than just about any consumer play. It's bought back a lot of stock and its labor and food costs are going lower.

Pure play. Not exciting, though, like trading Occidental Petroleum ( OXY) or National Oilwell Varco ( NOV). But it will most likely be more lucrative.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long VF Corp., Pepsi, BP and Chevron.

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