The markets sank again Tuesday on deepening worries about the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 161.27, or 1.94%, to 8,163.60, while the S&P 500 lost 17.69, or 1.97%, to 881.07. The Nasdaq dropped 41.23, or 2.31%, to 1,746.17.
Tim Seymour said on CNBC's "Fast Money" TV show that the S&P broke through its 200-moving day average. As a result, he sees the index heading down to 830. Guy Adami had a different take on the drop in the index. He said the index is moving down to 870 as he predicted, but he said it's not a "bad sign." He said the drop is actually giving a lot of people an opportunity to get back in. Karen Finerman agreed with Adami about the need for the selloff. However, she said investors should look closely at the fundamentals in the upcoming earnings before deciding whether to jump in. Joe Terranova said it's all about earnings now with the end of the reflation trade. Melissa Lee, the moderator of the show, shifted the discussion to the commodities, which were hit hard today. She noted one principal reason for the decline was the move by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to consider placing curbs on speculative commodity trading. Terranova said the commission is not opposed so much to speculation as it is to "zombie buyers," or index funds that gather up the paper assets as oil prices march higher. Adami, though, said the commission should just leave the free markets alone to deal with the zombie buyers.
Lee asked whether a restrictive policy would shift money from the ETFs to the equities. Although that proposition made sense to her, Finerman said she didn't want to get involved in trading off speculation talk. "I know I'll get it wrong," she said. Lee shifted the discussion to health insurers which were up today after the Obama administration signaled it was open to compromise on a public plan. Seymour said "negotiable" doesn't mean the health insurers are getting a reprieve because they are still under tremendous margin pressures. However, Finerman insisted the White House's shift was a significant move for the industry. Terranova jumped into the discussion, saying the back-and-forth moves are creating such uncertainty that it's difficult to know how to invest in these stocks. Moving to technology, Adami said both Intel ( INTC), which received an upgrade, and Oracle ( ORCL) fell today because they were due for a pullback after having been in the upper-end of their trading range. Similarly, Terranova said it was time for investors to move to the sidelines on IBM ( IBM), which fell to about $100, and wait for guidance. Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, said now the's time to own Apple ( AAPL). He said June is going to be "good" for the company, with even better months ahead in the September and December quarters. He said the impact of Apple's line of new products that were released in late June will be felt later in second half of the year. He said his firm's channel checks are showing strong demand for these products, especially the apps for the iPhone.
Will the earnings season be dismal? That's the question Lee put to Brian Overby, senior options analyst for Tradeking. Overby said he sees bearish signs in the market, adding the S&P could slip to 810 or 820 if the index hits 870. He said traders are see much more market volatility. He recommended investors to buy puts to protect their profits during the earnings season. Mark Zandi, Moody's economy.com chief economist, said the $780 billion stimulus is working and that it is premature to suggest that a second stimulus would be needed. He said one way to gauge the effectiveness of the stimulus is to see there is a dramatic dropoff in job losses to 400,000 by the end of the year from 2.1 million in the first quarter . He said it's not so much the stimulus not working as it is the failure of economists to forecast how bad off the economy really was. Moving on to a discussion of Alcoa ( AA), which wound up leading the Dow, David Lipschitz, an analyst with CLSA, said the stock rose today on some positive information on the company's end-markets and an upbeat economic outlook from the CEO. However, he said that will change Wednesday when the stock will head down after the company reports an another expected loss. Seymour wondered whether it was a little "dangerous" for the CEO to make upbeat comments the day before the earnings. Lipschitz agreed, saying the U.S. and European economies could be in more troubled than the CEO had imagined.
Lee turned to David Reidel, president of Reidel Research Group, for overseas trading ideas. He said he's buying India and Brazil and is a little cautious on China because it's already made a move. He said Brazil and India offer investors opportunities to get into telecom and bank stocks. In the segment that looks at vice trades, Patty Edwards, of Storehouse Partners, likes Phillip Morris ( PM). She said the stock is attractively trading at 14 times, has a 5% dividend, and gets half of its revenues from Asia and developing nations. She also liked Molson Coors ( TAP), which is trading at 13 times and is benefiting from lower grain prices. In response to a question from Finerman on Atria ( MO), Edwards said she liked the international side of Phillip Morris more than what Altria has to offer. Is it time to buy Google ( GOOG) now that it has fallen below 400 for the first time since late May? Adami said 410 and 420 is the right price for Google. But he said that since it's a high beta name, investors should stay from the stock if they think the market is going lower. In the final trades, seymour advised selling Aetna ( AET) while Adami liked Wellpoint ( WLP). Finerman was bullish about Transocean ( RIG), and Terranova liked McDonald's ( MCD). "Check out "'Fast Money' Portfolios of the Week" on Stockpickr every Thursday.