This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on June 22 at 7:58 a.m. EDT.Summer has set in with its usual severity. Similar to many, I am trying to grapple with the market's outlook for the next few months. From my perch, the short-term market mosaic is particularly hard to decode. Indecision reins and is reflected in a relatively range-bound market, with the S&P 500 having been contained between 875 and 950 since early May and activity characterized by lackluster volume. In summary, I have concluded that a sideways correction or a deep correction are most likely, with a combined probability of 75%, and that a continued rally holds about a 25% probability.