Fifth: design hubris. The iPhone is entering its third year -- end of life for hot gadgets. The iPod is is sliding into sales declines. Mac sales stopped growing and lost marketshare last quarter. So clearly Apple needs a new device. As Munster notes, the company wants to "fill the gap between the iPod touch and the MacBook." Apple will no doubt fill that gap with a beautifully designed tablet. The problem is that consumers helped create that gap, and they aren't necessarily looking for something to fill it.

"That," says Munster, "is the wild card."

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