The RealMoney contributors are in the business of trading and investing all day on the basis of ongoing news flow. Below, we offer the top five ideas that RealMoney contributors posted today and how they played those ideas.

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1. Fifth Third: Mortgage Refi Hope vs. Stress Test Results
By Eric Jackson
7:50 a.m. EDT

Fifth Third Bank ( FITB) rocketed 25% yesterday after news came out that its mortgage unit had refinanced $21 million of Freddie Mac ( FRE) loans recently.

There's no question that when you look at FITB -- or any of the regional banks -- they look cheap on a price-to-book basis. Signs like yesterday's that the mortgage crisis is close to bottoming and that they will participate meaningfully in the recovery are a boon to the stock price.

The question you have to overlook in investing in a FITB (and the other smaller regionals) is what will Thursday's bank stress test results reveal about its capital needs. As such, the shares of FITB and other regional banks will trade like options this week.

If the stress test results are similar to recent earnings results, anything short of complete disaster will be taken as a positive and shares will rally. There are risks, but I've taken a small position in FITB. I particularly like the insider holdings at this bank (2.4%) and another Ohio-based bank, Huntington Bancshares ( HBAN) (9%, with some buying in the last week), compared to a Regions Financial ( RF) (where insider holdings are less than 0.5%).

FITB and HBAN also have almost double and triple the short ratios, respectively, as RF. This rocket fuel will also send shares higher on even muted news on Thursday.

Long FITB


2. Myriad Genetics
By Adam Feuerstein
8:54 a.m. EDT

Myriad Genetics ( MYGN), the maker of genetic diagnostic tests, including one for breast cancer, came up a $2 million to $3 million short on revenue expectations last night. The stock is getting hit fairly hard this morning. MYGN has been a highflying growth stock since last year (the chart is a marvel), but as we've seen with other high P/E stocks like Celgene ( CELG), the crash comes when the company can't keep up with the ever-increasing demands for growth, growth and more growth.

The cause for this quarter's revenue shortfall seems to be in dispute, with bulls saying it was a subpar February with March revenue back to record-setting ways. Bears say the growth of MYGN's genetic testing business may be hitting the wall, hurt in part by -- yes, you guessed right -- the recession.

No positions


3. Springtime for Agricultural Sector
By Alan Farley
9:01 a.m. EDT

Agricultural stocks are finally heating up after lagging the broad market for many months. This follows the quickening pace of the raw materials rally, which is lifting all sorts of energy, industrial and metals companies.

Potash ( POT) is a top performer here. I'd like to see price settle back to the three-month trend line in the upper $80s and use that level as a base for a rally up and over $100.

You can find more technical comments on the stock and an annotated chart here.

No positions


4. The Leadership from Cyclicals Is Looking Tired
By Eddy Elfenbein
11:50 a.m. EDT

The rally since March 9 has been truly impressive. But we have to bear in mind that it's been heavily tilted toward cyclical stocks. By cyclical, I mean companies whose business model is heavily influenced by the ups and downs of the broader economy.

While the S&P 500 is up 34% through yesterday's close, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index is up a stunning 98%. In fact, cyclicals have outperformed the market for 19 of the last 23 sessions!

I still like the outlook for the broader market, but I suspect we're going to see an internal rotation. It's time for the cyclicals to take a rest. They're certainly earned it.


5. The ICE(man) Cometh?
By Gary Morrow
1:36 p.m. EDT

IntercontinentalExchange ( ICE) is one of the top performers on the NYSE today. The stock is up over 12% and is above $100.00 for the first time in nearly eight months. Volume is running well above the daily average and will finish the day as the heaviest positive day this year.

Buyers are responding to the IntercontinentalExchange's strong first-quarter earnings. The company reported EPS of $1.09, topping the consensus estimate of 95 cents. Revenue for the quarter rose 12% year over year.

ICE Daily (NYSE)
IntercontinentalExchange
chart
TradeStation

The powerful breakout today is leaving behind a four-week bullish pennant that began shortly after the March rally began to lose its momentum. From the March lows, which were part of a multi-month rounding bottom formation, IntercontinentalExchange rebounded 80% before settling in for a healthy consolidation.

Strong support from this bullish pennant is now in place just above $91.00. This is near the March highs of $91.40. Slightly above the March highs is support at the November peak of $93.00.

In sum, a light-volume pullback to strong support between $93.00 and $90.00 would be a low-risk buying opportunity. On the upside, I expect this high-volume breakout to carry the stock up to the $120.00 level in the next few months.

No positions


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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.

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