- this moment in tech,
- bad journalism, and
- a few positive macro developments.
Don't Miss This Moment in Tech
Posted at 6:38 a.m. EDT, April 21, 2009 We are so focused on the endless one-time gains at Bank of America ( BAC) that made the quarter look better than it should that we forgot about some other obvious positives that were occurring right before our eyes. I am talking about tech, and tech mergers and tech earnings. No, I am not minimizing the problems of the banks -- did anyone think that Ken Lewis would choose to show a loss if he had a chance, as the bears seemed to urge? I am saying that when you have both Oracle ( ORCL) and IBM ( IBM) interested in something that we thought was worth very little just a few weeks ago -- Sun Microsystems ( JAVA) -- when you have Broadcom ( BRCM) interested in buying Emulex ( ELX) -- another left-for-dead tech company -- and when you have Texas Instruments ( TXN) saying inventories are lean, mostly because of Asian demand, you are not getting a picture of despair. In fact, the bank problems totally obscured what should have been a pretty fabulous day for tech, if the Nasdaq hadn't been so far ahead of the other averages already. When I look at the landscape of what to buy I keep coming back to tech because it is the universal anecdote: great balance sheets that do not need capital raising, a sector in bad need of consolidation that is getting it, a group of companies that suffered from tremendous inventory overhang, and a cohort that has enough Asian exposure that it can benefit from the successful Chinese stimulus. Instead, we focus on Bank of America. Tuesday looks like a turn, but I would think that turns would be bogus this soon in earnings season because we know Wells Fargo ( WFC) is going to be a repeat of Bank of America -- a good-looking quarter that everyone will pick apart. But if you want to participate in the turn when it happens, you know it is going to be tech -- not drugs, not industrials, not financials, not oils, but tech. So find what you can live with and buy it today, because this group is the only one with the staying power to make it through this period without a lot of questions, even though earnings will not be perfect. Random musings: A preannouncement in IBM leads to disappointment when we see the actual number. That's been the pattern with tech forever. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wells Fargo.