CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- This morning's surge in the shares of AMR ( AMR), the first airline to report, is a sign of what is coming this week and next, says veteran airline analyst Bob McAdoo.

McAdoo, an analyst at Avondale Partners, made a good call Monday morning, issuing a report titled: "Buy the airlines before they report."

AMR shares were trading Wednesday afternoon at $4.98, up about 18%, after the carrier beat estimates, losing $1.35 a share when analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had estimated a loss of $1.68.

"The real story now is that people are worried that the world is coming to an end," he said. "But here we are in the worst recession ever, people relate it to the 1930s, and in what is seasonally the worst time of year, the dead of winter, and American did slightly better than last year."

American's loss of $1.35 a share was 2 cents better than its loss of $1.37 in the first quarter of 2009. Like most other carriers, American is benefitting from capacity cuts and sharply lower fuel prices.

"Airlines are trading as if headed for bankruptcy this year, (but) we believe the various earnings calls will largely dispel those worries," McAdoo wrote in his report.

The Amex Airline Index was up about 3% early Wednesday afternoon. The index rose 11% last week, but is still down about 25% this year. Southwest ( LUV) will report Thursday. Most carriers report next week.

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