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1. Homebuilders Break Out
By Rick Bensignor
12:33 P.M. EDT

Today we made a call to clients to get long homebuilders, via the SPDR Homebuilders ETF ( XHB). With yesterday's down close relative to Monday's, today's move up through $11.98 becomes a qualified breakout above the DeMark TDST line that has been acting as resistance over the past several days.

Moreover, today's low is the conversion line on the daily cloud chart and the lagging line (shown in royal blue) has also broken above its cloud. This should lead to a further move up that would likely target the 200-day moving average over time (currently at $13.91). The tight stop is a close under $11.00, making this a near 2-to-1 reward-to-risk profile.

SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) -- Daily
chart
CQG

No positions

2. AMR Kicks Off Airline Reports on a Good Note
By David Sterman
11:11 A.M. EDT

AMR's ( AMR)loss was not as bad as feared and the stock has moved up about 8% in the last 15 minutes. Other carriers start weighing in this week as well, and guidance on bookings trends and capacity cuts will set the tone.


3. Real Estate Thoughts
Moby Waller
11:06 A.M. EDT

Just heard on CNBC (and read somewhere else recently) that Miami condos are going for $130,000, down from $800,000. And on the Gulf side (my favorite area of Florida), houses are one-fifth what they were at the recent high.

Now, more research is needed, and I am not recommending you immediately go speculate in Florida real estate ... but in my view, if you can buy a decent property for $150,000 or less almost anywhere in America (but particularly an area with good weather and near the beach ... oh and no state income tax), then you have have little to lose. It doesn't mean the property will gain value in the near-term ... but when you are talking $100,000 to $150,000 or so, it is very unlikely that you can lose money in actual dollar terms in my analysis -- so if you would be buying as a primary home (or a vacation home), it would seem low-risk to me at this point.

Rental property is a possibility too, but that is riskier. And in general, I'm a fan of actual homes vs. condos, and older neighborhoods vs. new surburbs (the older neighborhoods in better locations are generally better quality homes and will hold value better than generic suburbs off the interstate) ... areas with good weather (and near water) are kind of a no-brainer (meaning don't necessarily look to scoop up Buffalo real estate) as the "snowbird effect" will continue in the future.

No positions

4. Sold Our MCO Late Yesterday
By Brian Gilmartin
8:56 A.M. EDT

We sold our Moody's ( MCO) late yesterday for a nice 35% gain since Feb. 24's $18 buy point. Of the three financials we wrote about that are " holding their own ," Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME) and Moody's have acted the best, while Morningstar ( MORN) remains very punk.

We're giving Walgreen ( WAG) the stink eye here too, given yesterday's retail sales numbers. Walgreen's 200-month moving average resides around $26, which should be support in the event of a pullback.

We are looking at some new positions for clients that we haven't owned in years, based upon the huge volume we are seeing in some of the stocks, many of which Gary Morrow and Dan Fitzpatrick have written about. We are now long Alcoa ( AA) and thinking about some REIT's for the first time in about five years. Check the recent volume in Kimco ( KIM), one of the best REIT management teams amongst retail strip-mall and mall operators.

Position: Long WAG, AA, MORN.


5. Drug Sales Bitten by Recession Bug
Adam Feuerstein
8:50 A.M. EDT

More evidence that the recession is taking a bite out of drug sales:

Abbott ( ABT) reports light Humira sales this morning, particularly in the U.S. where sales rose just 2%.

This follows the first-quarter Celgene ( CELG) warning earlier this month. Also today, Leerink Swann is publishing a survey of U.S.-based oncologists and hematologists reporting a negative effect on the use of high-cost cancer drugs -- both oral pills and IV drugs -- due to the recession.

The reason for lower drug usage most cited by the doctors in the survey: Patients are having trouble affording drug copays due to the recession.

Leerink says potential losers from this trend could be Onyx Pharmaceuticals ( ONYX), OSI Pharmaceuticals ( OSIP), Alexion Pharmaceuticals ( ALXN) and Celgene.

No position.


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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.

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