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1. Homebuilders Break Out
By Rick Bensignor
12:33 P.M. EDT Today we made a call to clients to get long homebuilders, via the SPDR Homebuilders ETF ( XHB). With yesterday's down close relative to Monday's, today's move up through $11.98 becomes a qualified breakout above the DeMark TDST line that has been acting as resistance over the past several days.
By David Sterman
11:11 A.M. EDT
3. Real Estate Thoughts
11:06 A.M. EDT Just heard on CNBC (and read somewhere else recently) that Miami condos are going for $130,000, down from $800,000. And on the Gulf side (my favorite area of Florida), houses are one-fifth what they were at the recent high. Now, more research is needed, and I am not recommending you immediately go speculate in Florida real estate ... but in my view, if you can buy a decent property for $150,000 or less almost anywhere in America (but particularly an area with good weather and near the beach ... oh and no state income tax), then you have have little to lose. It doesn't mean the property will gain value in the near-term ... but when you are talking $100,000 to $150,000 or so, it is very unlikely that you can lose money in actual dollar terms in my analysis -- so if you would be buying as a primary home (or a vacation home), it would seem low-risk to me at this point. Rental property is a possibility too, but that is riskier. And in general, I'm a fan of actual homes vs. condos, and older neighborhoods vs. new surburbs (the older neighborhoods in better locations are generally better quality homes and will hold value better than generic suburbs off the interstate) ... areas with good weather (and near water) are kind of a no-brainer (meaning don't necessarily look to scoop up Buffalo real estate) as the "snowbird effect" will continue in the future. No positions
By Brian Gilmartin
8:56 A.M. EDT We sold our Moody's ( MCO) late yesterday for a nice 35% gain since Feb. 24's $18 buy point. Of the three financials we wrote about that are "
5. Drug Sales Bitten by Recession Bug
8:50 A.M. EDT More evidence that the recession is taking a bite out of drug sales: Abbott ( ABT) reports light Humira sales this morning, particularly in the U.S. where sales rose just 2%. This follows the first-quarter Celgene ( CELG) warning earlier this month. Also today, Leerink Swann is publishing a survey of U.S.-based oncologists and hematologists reporting a negative effect on the use of high-cost cancer drugs -- both oral pills and IV drugs -- due to the recession. The reason for lower drug usage most cited by the doctors in the survey: Patients are having trouble affording drug copays due to the recession. Leerink says potential losers from this trend could be Onyx Pharmaceuticals ( ONYX), OSI Pharmaceuticals ( OSIP), Alexion Pharmaceuticals ( ALXN) and Celgene. No position.
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