This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 18 at 7:36 a.m. EDT.

From my perch, the American International Group ( AIG) bonus outcry and today's House Capital Markets Subcommittee hearings are simply a sideshow to the main event -- namely that we have likely seen a significant and maybe even a generational low in the U.S. stock market.

How to seek alpha in a bull market was the message I tried to communicate on CNBC's "The Kudlow Report" last night.

I continue to view the March 5 low as the "Nouriel Roubini stock market bottom," the day the grizzly NYU Professor pronounced a 600 or lower S&P 500 price objective during his worldwide lecture tour.

A confluence of negative sentiment, historically low equity valuations, a noticeable deceleration in the rate of decline of industrial production and a strongly positive-leaning set of market internals have conspired to produce a combustion in the world's stock markets that is likely to be sustained through the summer.

Here is the tape of last night's show.

Tactically, I wouldn't expect the market to continue its straight up move as it has done over the past week. Nor would I anticipate a correction to anything near the Nouriel Roubini stock market bottom low of March 5, 2009. As I displayed earlier this week, below is a chart of my specific expectations for the S&P 500, using the SPDRs ( SPY), through the middle of the summer 2009.

SPDR Trust (SPY) -- Expectations
Bloomberg

Most have been caught flatfooted in the face of the market's rip, and it is hard to find anyone who believes that the rally is a prelude to a sustainable advance.

Not surprisingly, the media is in disbelief and so are hedge funds, with their net long positions near record low levels for fear of continued investment losses and investor redemptions. The individual investor, also burned by the bear market, has redeemed out of mutual funds by record amounts, and based on my conversations with high net worth stock brokers, many retail accounts have similarly raised cash, or even have closed their brokerage accounts.

Meanwhile, a new marginal buyer -- namely, pension plans -- might have already begun to levitate stock prices recently as their portfolio has been skewed by the marked outperformance of fixed income vis-à-vis equities. And with the yield on the 10-year U.S. note climbing over 3% yesterday, that asset allocation might continue to have a salutary impact on stocks.

Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver , a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here.


Know What You Own: AIG operates in the property and casualty insurance industry, and some of the other stocks in its field include Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Travelers (TRV), Chubb (CB), Ace (ACE) and Allstate (ALL). For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit TheStreet.com's Investing A-to-Z section.
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long SPY and short SPY puts, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP.

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