The difficult fundamental backdrop and rapidly descending stock prices have resulted in a particularly volatile period.

I am also fully aware that most forecasts (of a stock and economic kind), especially at inflection points, are inaccurate or difficult to time, and I know that I am catching a falling knife, which is often an expensive and painful proposition.

Two to three years ago, I had a variant view, and I made a bearish call on equities at a time when (prima facie) all appeared healthy. While I clearly saw the developing cracks in the foundations of credit, in the economy and in the world's stock markets, the media, investment strategists, mutual fund and hedge fund managers wore rose-colored glasses as they were almost universally bullish. Today, most of the same group, many of whom have been destroyed by the bear market, can see no light at the end of the tunnel, and frankly, this bolsters my confidence in the call.

It is now time for me to adopt another variant view by espousing a more bullish opinion on the U.S. stock market.

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Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver , a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here.


Know What You Own: Berkshire Hathaway holds large stakes in stocks such as Wesco Financial (WSC), Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Moody's (MCO), Washington Post (WPO), USG Corporation (USG) and American Express (AXP). For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit
TheStreet.com's Investing A-to-Z section.
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP.

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