2. SPX Losses

The S&P has given up nearly the entire gain from the 2002-'03 period. This sort of action reminds us of other long trading ranges. Recall 1966, when the Dow first hit 1000, to 1982 when it got through it on a permanent basis.

Over that period, there were five major rallies and selloffs. My suspicion is that the 2003-15 market is likely to be a very rangebound market. Now that this five-year rally has completely sold off, it is setting up for the next leg up (very 1973). Note that these were not buy-and-hold rallies, but six- to 18-month trades.

S&P 500 Retest
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Source: Bloomberg

3. Dow Components and the 200 Day Moving Average

All 30 Dow stocks are below their 200-day moving average -- a condition that has only occurred once. The last time was right after the 1987 crash.

4. Cash Allocation

Investors' current allocation to Cash is well above its 21-year mean, and at the highest levels since the 2002, 1998 and '90 lows.

Cash Allocation
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The last few times were close to these levels was October 1987 and March 2003.

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