Editor's note: Jim Cramer will present his 2009 stock outlook for the first time at TheStreet.com Investment Conference on Saturday, Oct. 25. Click for details.Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- financial survival,
- tech's failure, and
- the possibility of recovery.
Forget Punishment -- This Is About Survival Originally published on Monday, Sept. 29, at 9:59 a.m. EDT Let 'em all go. Let 'em take the hit. Let 'em go under. I hear it over and over again. I keep hearing it: Let all of the banks go. And it makes me sick. It is time to recognize that the banks are the economy. It is time to recognize that this plan was the best thing we could have because we were going to see, and could still see, a total collapse in the economy. We can be as punitive as we want. We were totally punitive when it came to Lehman. We let them have it, right in the kisser. We really showed them. We really hurt them and their recklessness. And the aftermath of that deliciously punitive action is a worldwide meltdown such that this plan cannot be put into place fast enough. The plan now has so many strings that many banks that should participate in it now won't -- it might be easier to run a bank in a really risky way, plunder it, and hope to get away with it rather than negotiate a sale of it.
Tech: All Talk, No Profit Originally published on Wednesday, Oct. 1, at 11:09 a.m. EDT The strange love affair with tech for so many of our readers is a tad unnerving to me. With the exception of Apple ( AAPL) and Google and, for a while, Research In Motion ( RIMM), for most of this century tech has done nothing, made you no money, created no value. But the love affair persists, and I find it quite bizarre. What's the point of it? Why do we focus, for example, endlessly on Apple, when for all we know Steve Jobs is sick and the quarter's as bad as RIMM's? Why do we focus on Google when, after all, it is ad-supported and the ad market is in a severe depression. It is a cyclical decline, so when it gets better, Google will take share, but clearly there are better bargains out there. Nothing even remotely exciting is happening in tech. Microsoft ( MSFT) and Intel ( INTC) have been remarkable duds. There is nothing intriguing about Oracle ( ORCL). I like Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ), but only because it is doing a big restructuring because of its acquisition of EDS, and I believe that Dell ( DELL) may be falling apart. But think of it. What is the case for EMC? For National Semi ( NSM)? For Nokia ( NOK), other than the dividend? For Corning ( GLW)? For Micron ( MU)? For Applied Materials ( AMAT)? For KLA-Tencor ( KLAC)? I simply do not know what it is other than that the analysts are endlessly bullish and like to move stocks a point or two with their calls.
Don't Close the Door on a Recovery Originally published on Friday, Oct. 3, at 10:24 a.m. EDT Worried. Worried for the first time about being too negative. We just got an unassisted bid for Wachovia ( WB) that showed that the FDIC rushed to judgment and that things weren't so bad. We are getting the bill that could at least change the landscape of mortgages. We are going to get worldwide interest rate cuts. We have many stocks down below their values, even as earnings estimates are coming down, because of hedge-fund strategies that are pushing down the good with the bad. We have many flush companies that are ready to put money to work if the CEOs feel better about the environment. We have a new president coming. And we have Doug Kass pointing out that everyone is negative as he wants to rent longs. One thing is for certain: Things are awful. That's why the VIX is off the charts, and the new lows are incredible, and the mistrust is the worst I have ever seen. But what happens if China comes back? What happens if Wells Fargo ( WFC)/ JPMorgan Chase ( JPM)/ U.S. Bancorp ( USB)/ Bank of America ( BAC) can loan? What happens if we are caught short and negative on everything?