Updated from 11:59 a.m. EDTU.S. stocks traded erratically Tuesday as traders digested hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve chief and a plunge in China's market alongside an encouraging development in the blistering oil market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw action on both sides of the flat line this morning but recently ramped higher while getting particularly strong support from financial components Citigroup ( C), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM) and AIG ( AIG). Recently the Dow tacked on 58 points, or 0.5%, to 12,338. Broader indices were little changed following a morning in the red, with the S&P 500 up a point at 1363 and the Nasdaq Composite down fractionally at 2459. "The market is undergoing a state of real nervousness here," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "The fact that
Those comments would appear, once again, to suggest that the Fed won't cut interest rates again following its 325-point easing campaign over the past few months. In fact, fed-funds futures today were pricing in roughly 56% odds that the Fed will raise rates at its Aug. 5 gathering. The chances of a quarter-point hike by the September meeting are now set at 100%, and the prospect of a 50-basis-point climb by October is fully priced in. Against that backdrop, stocks were weaker this morning, but alleviating some of that pain recently was news that Saudi Arabia's oil output was boosted by nearly 500,000 barrels a day this quarter at 9.54 million, according to CNBC. The network cited sources in the Saudi Oil Ministry. Crude didn't register an inordinately profound reaction to the news, but it did reverse early gains to shed 38 cents at $133.97 a barrel. Earlier, futures soared to a new high just shy of the $138 mark before quickly cooling to a smaller gain. Higher oil prices were among the main factors driving up April's U.S. trade deficit, or the amount by which imports outweighed exports, to $60.9 billion. Analysts were looking for minus $60 billion, and that compares with March's upwardly revised figure of negative $56.5 billion. "The trade deficit heightens the risk of recession and surging unemployment," wrote Peter Morici, a business professor with the University of Maryland and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "Ben Bernanke's most recent comments about oil-driven inflation only serve to distract attention from these issues and aggravate risks."
"Bernanke in recent comments has emphasized that western central banks stand ready to resist oil-induced recession, when in fact oil price increases are far beyond the control of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to affect," Morici continued. He added that the Fed chief's words "cause markets to believe the Fed will raise interest rates as we travel into a recession and this drives equity prices down, compounding the panic created by rising oil prices." Gold futures were sliding $25.40 to $869.30 an ounce. Following Bernanke's observations, the U.S. dollar was advancing 1% against the euro and the yen and jumping by more than a percent against the pound and the Swiss franc. Foreign markets were uniformly lower, and one of the hardest hit was China's CSI 300, which plummeted 8.1%. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo dropped 1.1% overnight, and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong sank 4.2%. Among European exchanges, London's FTSE 100, Germany's Xetra Dax and the Paris Cac were all down 0.7% or more. On the U.S. corporate front, chipmaker Texas Instruments ( TXN) narrowed its second-quarter outlook, partially citing weak demand for handheld devices. Shares were falling 1.9%. Elsewhere, both Citigroup and Lehman Brothers bumped up their Apple ( AAPL) price targets a day after the company released its 3G-enabled iPhone, after which the stock added 2.3%. Separately, Lehman Brothers ( LEH) slid 7.1% after Wachovia downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform. Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda said its offer to buy up to 20 million shares of Ford ( F) generated a tremendous response, with more than 1 billion shares of the automaker being tendered. However, Tracinda will keep to its plan to limit the purchase to 20 million, spending $170 million overall. Ford shares slumped 2.7%.
Yields on government bonds forged higher as investors pulled out of Treasury securities. The 10-year note was down 19/32 in price to yield 4.07%, and the 30-year bond shed 21/32 in price, yielding 4.67%.