Despite regulatory hold-ups, reimbursement and labeling issues, some troubled drug sales and a company sale that never happened in 2007, a few big biotech stocks maintain bullish outlooks for fourth-quarter and year-end results, as well as the year ahead. Genzyme ( GENZ), Biogen Idec ( BIIB), Amgen ( AMGN) and Celgene ( CELG) each preannounced fourth-quarter and annual results in conjunction with last week's JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco. They guided ahead optimistically. Meanwhile, Genentech ( DNA) will share its numbers post-close today and Gilead ( GILD) will announce later in January. Here's a look at what investors saw and expect to see from these companies.
Genentech shares could be influenced by interim, two-year data (three-year disease-free survival data are due in 2009) for Avastin in colorectal cancer sometime during the second half of 2008, according to King. However, he expects the stock will be range-bound until the company releases data from the colorectal cancer and ovarian cancer trials in 2009, in addition to the breast cancer indication.
Celgene anticipates earning $1.05 a share on revenue of $1.4 billion in 2007, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The company's current 2008 guidance doesn't include the Pharmion ( PHRM) acquisition, which it expects will close in April. Sans the Pharmion deal, it anticipates earning $1.50 to $1.55 a share, on revenue o f$1.8 billion, including expected Revlimid sales of $1.25 billion in 2008. Factoring in the Pharmion acquisition, Lazard analyst Matthew Osborne is looking for $1.38 a share on revenue of $2.1 billion, including a Street-high view of Revlimid sales at $1.32 billion. Celgene is also expected to give updated midstage data on its Aprelamist for psoriasis in the first week of February.
Analysts are looking for earnings of 40 cents a share for the quarter, or 44 cents a share on an adjusted basis, on revenue of $1.09 billion. They're expecting $1.66 a share for the year, on revenue of $4.22. The 2008 consensus is for $1.88 a share on revenue of $5.03 billion.
The company is predicting earnings of $4 a share in 2008, in line with the Thomson Financial consensus target of $4 a share on revenue of $4.26 billion.