Jim Cramer says that when he looks at a stock like Google ( GOOG), he asks himself if it's going up because of multiple expansion or because earnings estimates are going up a lot, he said on TheStreet.com TV's Wall St. Confidential
Web video Friday. "Is this a multiple-expansion story, which I tend not to like if interest rates go higher, or is this is a solid estimates-too-low story?" he asked TheStreet.com Internet reporter Vishesh Kumar. "This is a solid estimates-too-low story," Kumar replied. "We're still trading at about one times forward growth, maybe 1.2 right now, as opposed to what it was a couple of months ago. But you're seeing the numbers getting moved up. People are predicting more upside, and there might even be margin improvement." Further, there is more concern about the U.S. market, and people want more rest-of-world exposure, Kumar continued. The story played out with people wondering whether the mortgage crisis would hit Google, he said. Now the tone has shifted as people have realized that Google gets half of its revenue from overseas, "which is still a very healthy marketplace." "Why are people suddenly willing to discount the positive of Google phone?" Cramer asked.
"It's a very speculative thing at this point," Kumar said. "It's the best-kept secret. It's one of those late 2008 to 2009 kinds of stories, too, where even if it's in the works ... we're very early on right now." When Cramer asked if there was anything crazy about a price-target bump of $600 to $700 for Google, Kumar pointed out that it is 30 times forward earnings. "The company is growing at 30%," he said. "If these guys didn't like it at $300, I don't think they're going to like it above $600."