Can you give me a rough idea of what happens to Dendreon's stock either way after March 29?

First, don't forget that the FDA will release briefing documents -- its review of the Provenge data and questions for the advisory panel -- on March 27. That's two days before the panel convenes. Expect some volatility in Dendreon's stock around that.

If the advisory panel rejects Provenge this time around, Dendreon's $4-plus stock gets cut in half easily. The company has a bit more than $1 a share in cash.

If the advisory panel is positive, Dendreon zooms. This will probably sound very conservative, but it's not hard to get to $500 million in sales for Provenge on its initial approval. Slap a five times sales multiple on that and discount it any way you want, because it doesn't matter -- Dendreon's current $280 million-plus market cap will be way undervalued.
As originally published, this column contained an error. Please see Corrections and Clarifications.

Adam Feuerstein writes regularly for In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. Feuerstein appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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