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Not a Great Fan of Sentiment
1/23/2007 9:27 AM EST

There has been a heck of a lot of complaining over the last few trading days -- I presume by invested bulls -- after a quite modest drop in equities.

I continue to see the markets differently from those who believe skepticism abounds as manifested by, among other things, high short positions.

I see sentiment differently than the bulls, believing that complacency is copious and disbelief has been suspended, as manifested in record low credit spreads and low volatility measures. Technically, put/call ratios are back to levels of the spring highs.

As I have mentioned in the past, I am not a great fan of sentiment, preferring to see what investors are doing, not what they are saying! To be sure, the AAII survey is bearish, as is this morning's UBS Investor survey.

And, fundamentally ... well you all know where I stand.

Shorted Coach in Premarket
1/23/2007 9:42 AM EST

I shorted Coach ( COH) in premarket trading at $45.50. Although earnings beat expectations, I view guidance as uninspiring and I feel the market is overeacting to the upside.

Over the weekend, Michael Santoli penned an interesting column in Barron's, "Rich America, Poor America." I think Mike omitted an important point that has not only buoyed the sales for high-end retailers (like Coach) but also raises risks going forward.

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