A long time ago in this very same galaxy, certain market strategists were perceived (rightly or wrongly) as "market movers." Amid the bubble-era hysteria and its aftermath, this column set out to determine which forecasters were worth listening to, culminating in the annual "
Various and SundryThe "big vs. small" trade mentioned above has repeatedly frustrated the
|Totality of Returns |
Including dividends, small-caps really haven't been the stars in recent years
|S&P 500||S&P Mid||S&P Small|
|Source: Merrill Lynch|
|Bold = Best annual performance|
We view financial risk much like popcorn popping in a microwave. Until the first kernel pops, one tends to believe that nothing is happening. The initial pop seems like a random event until a second occurs. A third. A fourth. Then the popping goes wild," he writes. "With major central banks still in a tightening mode, it is probably more prudent to view last year's hedge fund fiasco(Bernstein wrote that after the Bank of England's surprise rate hike last week and ahead of Thursday's Bank of Japan policy meeting, in which rates the BoJ policy board voted 6-3 to keep monetary policy steady.) "Sub-prime mortgages. Pop!" Bernstein wrote ahead of IndyMac's ( NDE) implosion on Tuesday.
Amaranth as the first kernel of popcorn popping rather than as an isolated event of no consequence. Other kernels have started to pop.