The market went up and stayed up, Jim Cramer told his
"RealMoney" radio listeners on Monday, despite ongoing heat waves and global unrest. The market is responding at last to the good news we had last week and also to a number of big acquisitions, especially the announcement from HCA ( HCA), Cramer said, adding that investors might finally be willing to acknowledge that "not everything is Intel ( INTC), not everything is 3M ( MMM). "I guess what I'm saying is did we ever get too negative?" Cramer said. Cramer's take on the HCA $21 billion buyout deal is that the healthcare company finally tired of the beating its stock has taken at the hands of options traders and hedge fund managers. He said the business was great, but that analysts were never willing to recognize this, always finding something that made the stock a poor pick. But management believed in HCA's value, he said, and bought the stock even as the market beat it down. He added that Motorola ( MOT) and Coke ( KO) are two more examples of companies that have reported good quarters, but got hit by bearish investors. The lesson here, Cramer said, is that the market is not properly valuing companies. HCA wants to be in charge, he said. Its decision to take the company off the market is the beginning of a wave of similar decisions, thanks in large part to the fact that there are trillions of dollars in private equity waiting to be used.
Tech's Low BarThe tech fairy tale should not be forgotten, Cramer said. "Once upon a time, techs were rulers of the financial universe," he said. "Anything dot-com, anything PC-related, anything Internet, anything web-based, anything software, really, anything fiber optic ... they always made you feel like you were in the right place at the right time. "But then it fell apart," and the sector has had a tough time recovering from the big bubble kaboom.
However, Cramer believes things will change for tech stocks this fall for several reasons, including the fact that Microsoft ( MSFT) is getting closer to launching its Vista operating System, and there are two new gaming systems coming from Sony ( SNE) and Nintendo. This is good news, but not the best reason to buy these stocks, Cramer said. The negative sentiment has lowered expectations for these stocks, so companies are more likely to beat next quarter's earnings, he said. And Wall Street buys and sells stocks based on whether they can beat their earnings estimates. "It is the dream of every investor to get in on the ground floor of a market craze and ride it higher," Cramer told listeners. That's the sentiment that is driving interest in the digital world, he said, pointing out that newspapers and television companies are trying to get a foothold in the online, digital interactive world." Having been there and done that by building TheStreet.com ( TSCM), he said that the digital world is not going to be a lifejacket for the big media companies. "It doesn't have any sort of gravitas internally," he said. The New York Times ( NYT) has "developed the finest Web site of any newspaper in the country," he said, but its Web push still is not as valuable to its bottom line as its print ad business. The same is true for Scripps ( SSP) and Disney ( DIS). Even though all of these companies have made major Web pushes, these efforts didn't matter to their underlying businesses when it came time to report their quarters. This goes to show that you can't always believe the hype when you're looking for the next big thing, Cramer said, adding that the Web is just not making money for old media.
Google ( GOOG) is the online company making money, he said; and he still rates it a buy. Action Alerts PLUS However, he said that if you buy them immediately, you could get hurt in the near term. He told a caller to stay away from Montpelier Re ( MRH), because it has not had a chance to rebuild capital lost on last year's devastating hurricanes. He would rather be in Allstate ( ALL), which has stopped writing in the most dangerous parts of the country and offers a 2.5% yield. Textron ( TXT) is on fire, Cramer said. He believes that it had a "beautiful" quarter and that its main businesses should see organic growth. Finally, he said that BHP Billiton ( BHP) has had a good run, but that he would exit the stock. Commodities will see some more downside, he said, even though he ultimately believes that the company is a good long-term story.
Flour on the Floor"RealMoney" Radio received its usual slew of callers Monday, and Cramer told the first listener to hang onto Fluor ( FLR), which peaked along with other infrastructure plays as the Federal Reserve took rates higher. But the sector is at the beginning of a major turn, he said, because we need more power plants, more clean coal plants, more nuclear power plants and more refineries. He said he would buy some of his position before the earnings report, but not the entire amount, because stocks are so volatile when they report their earnings. Cramer said he has been in love with the infrastructure sector. Even though the stocks have been down, he said there are still good buys. He likes Foster Wheeler ( FWLT), ABB ( ABB) and URS ( URS) because they have great fundamentals. Cramer owns all three stocks for his charitable trust,