|Playing a Select Field in Biotech |
Looking at core holdings in the group
|Company Name (Symbol)||3/30/2006 Price||Rating||% UV/OV||Fair Value||MOM||5-Week MMA||Value Levels||Pivots||Risky Levels|
|Amgen (AMGN)||$72.62||BUY||0.20%||$72.50||DM||$74.30||57.63 S||66.86 S||91.57 A|
|Biogen Idec (BIIB)||$47.20||BUY||-6.40%||$50.45||DM||$46.84||44.47 M||48.40 W|
|Genentech (DNA)||$83.90||HOLD||-13.70%||$97.18||RM||$85.85||67.27 S||82.73 S/84.47 A||88.01 Q|
|Genzyme (GENZ)||$67.13||HOLD||-7.00%||$72.17||DM||$69.32||39.47 S||70.06 S/72.18 A||81.83 A|
|Gilead Sciences (GILD)||$61.67||HOLD||18.90%||$51.86||OB||$60.67||52.01 S||64.55 W|
|W - Weekly, M- Monthly, Q- Quarterly, S- Semiannual, A- Annual|
Guideline SummaryI define the long term as a rolling six-month horizon, which more specifically means that the month-end close for each stock provides a new input to my model. There are double entries at the end of each quarter, three entries at the half-year mark and four entries at the end of a year. These inputs may raise or lower the value levels, pivots and risky levels. If a monthly level is not tested in the current month, it will be raised or lowered the next month. I developed this method in 1984 while studying interest rates and expanded it to the equity averages, commodities and foreign exchange in 1987. I have been covering specific stocks since 1999. Fundamentals: Each evening, new data enter the model through ValuEngine, which uses 20 data points from Thomson/First Call and CapitalIQ, including 12-month trailing EPS, 12-month forward EPS from Wall Street analysts' projections and the 30-year bond yield. These data points update a stock's fair value, which is the price a stock could trade for, given all data calculations. Technicals: A stock with rising or overbought momentum and above its five-week MMA is likely to move higher. Buy and sell levels: My model gives levels at which to consider buying on weakness and selling on strength. I use the following abbreviations to denote time horizons: M for monthly, Q for quarterly, S for semiannual and A for annual.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Cerus and Xoma to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.