"This market has a habit of changing its mind very quickly," Aaron Task, the co-executive editor of TheStreet.com, told "RealMoney" radio show listeners Wednesday. Task is filling in for Jim Cramer this week.

Task believes that these mercurial turns are based on how market participants view the Federal Reserve's next move.

The market is ratcheting down odds that there will be many more rate hikes beyond the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Task said.

Fed funds futures now place 70% odds that the overnight lending rate will hit 5% by May 10, down from 80% earlier in the week.

Task said that even though people don't often like to focus on the Fed, ultimately the central bank's control over the value of the dollar is the most important factor on Wall Street.

James Turk, founder of GoldMoney and the author of the book The Coming Collapse of the Dollar, joined Task to talk about the metals markets and the role that the Fed plays in those prices.

With the Federal Reserve raising rates and liquidity tightening, Task asked if that would be negative for gold.

Turk pointed out that it's not the level of interest rates per se, but the level of real interest rates that is important for gold. Adjusted for inflation by subtracting the CPI from the fed funds rate, the real rate has stayed close to zero.

"Despite the fact that rates have been coming up, the CPI has risen as well," Turk said. "The Fed has been behind the curve on inflation ... and that will help gold."

Task pointed out that gold prices have come down, and he wanted to know if we were at the end of gold's bull run.

Turk said that the shake-up cleaned out the speculators, adding that once the price fell to $540, good physical demand returned to the market.

Gold will never fall below $500 again, Turk said, arguing that the world is at the beginning of a major inflationary period.

Turk said the dollar is dropping against gold. For example, he said that you can buy the same amount of crude with an ounce of gold as you could 50 years ago, but that it takes many more dollars.

All currencies are sinking, Turk said. Even if the dollar rises against other currencies, it doesn't mean that it will rise against the precious metal, he added, pointing out that gold rose against all major currencies last year, alongside the greenback.

The Bigger Picture

Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equities strategist at Citigroup ( C), joined Task to talk about the bigger market picture.

Task has been saying for weeks that the market is going through a change in leadership, away from momentum groups that have led for the last 18 months. Levkovich agreed.

"It's the same kind of thing we saw in the tech bubble period," Levkovich said, adding that extreme flows of money were going into areas like foreign equities at levels that are not sustainable.

"I'm really not interested in buying yesterday's winners," said Levkovich.

The Citigroup strategist said he's not bearish but would steer clear of yesterday's winners, focusing instead on broad-based industrial companies with a lot of exposure to many end-products.

Levkovich said it's a good environment for capital spending.

In terms of market sentiment, Levkovich said that as an aggregate, the market is not very excitable. But there are still certain areas of the market in which one can find very aggressive sentiment. He cited Google ( GOOG) as an example.

"Part of it goes back to the conversation we had about momentum," Levkovich said. "In the case of Google, every one rushed in with hot money ... and then everyone pulled out at the same time."

Levkovich said that it's still a great company and that Citigroup analysts are still bullish on the name but that it was ripe for profit-taking. Citigroup owns Google stock.

A caller wanted to know if Task would recommend ViroPharma ( VPHM) or Pain Therapeutics ( PTIE).

Task said that he prefers ViroPharma only because the company is profitable, but he warned that "a lot of these biotech companies are one-drug companies."

"If they have one bad trial the stock will get hammered," Task said. In order to lessen risk, he suggested checking out a biotech mutual fund or a fund with biotech exposure.
Aaron L. Task is the co-executive editor of TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. Click here to send him an email.