Structural FlawsThe structure of both ETFs is currently set so that two big components could offset each other: Both have close to 25% each in Japan and the U.K. The problem I see with these weightings is that, often, the Nikkei and the FTSE 100 tend to criss-cross in opposite directions. Because both economies have very similar weighting in each of the funds, they may offset each other, resulting in the fund not being able to capture the desired effect from either. Because both funds have only been trading for six months, it may be too early to know definitively that this will be an issue, but it bears watching. In addition to similar weightings for Japan and the U.K., the two funds also have similar weights in France, at roughly 9%; Germany, at 6.5%; Switzerland, which is 7%; and Australia, at 5%. Again, this could result in offsets that cancel out the beneficial effects of all these different exposures.
Tangled Economic CyclesI believe that in trying to tilt a portfolio toward growth or value, an investor needs to be able to do some forward-looking analysis. An important determinant in whether to favor growth or value with an investment can be the current state of the economy you are investing in. Based on precedent, growth tends to do well later in the economic cycle. A fund that blends together many different countries, which presumably are all at different points in the economic cycle, makes this task much more difficult. And as I've pointed out above, EFG and EFV are invested all over the globe.
|Opposite Effects |
The movements of the Nikkei and FTSE 100 could offset each other
|Source: Yahoo! Finance|
Easier AlternativesAn investor seeking simple, broad-based foreign exposure would be better off holding just one fund, perhaps iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund ( EFA), and paying one commission than trying to blend EFG and EFV into some sort of EFA-beating combination. An investor who wants to isolate narrower themes for foreign equities may want to look to single-country funds and common stocks instead. These new ETFs are bold attempts to capture a trend, but again, investors are better served elsewhere.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider iShares MSCI EAFE Growth Fund and iShares MSCI EAFE Value Fund to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.