The Guru: Beat the Selloff Blues by Jim CramerThis column was originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 20. Every time we have a good market, as we have since the year began, you get these folks who believe that selloffs have been repealed or that a selloff is a vast insult to the people's intelligence, or those who believe a selloff is the end of the world. We've had a gazillion selloffs in my time and if one occurs after things have been terrific, I find that it is accompanied by a cacophony of people who decide that this business is too dangerous and who give up whatever they have made. I am not writing this to taunt. I am writing it to suggest that the way to beat these blues is simply to be sure that you are selling into strength, particularly when things are overbought and you get so much optimism. Remember, I am not talking about timing the market. That's not my plan. I am talking about going against the grain and letting even some of your favorite stocks go so that you have room to buy them back when they come down.
Fundamental Concerns: Google's Momentum Could Wane by Frank CurzioThis column was originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 19. There is no doubt that Google is the darling of Wall Street. The Jan. 18 downgrade by some small shop only serves as the exception to the increasingly popular analyst game of "top my price target." But what's being overlooked in this game is that the stock's further rise isn't dependent on Google's business. It's dependent on momentum. Since its IPO at $85 a share in 2004, Google shares have soared about 425% to $450 a share. I admit I was on the sidelines the whole time during the move, but enjoyed watching the action, as well as the analysts race their targets ever higher. But shares are not moving higher on valuation here; they are moving higher on momentum. Momentum consists of two important conditions:
- Positive sentiment
- Favorable market conditions
Techno Bull: Click Fraud Just Another McGuffin By Cody WillardThis column was originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 24. So let's talk about this Google click fraud thing for one second, as it has become a large part of the bear case on Google right now. Look, Google knows there are some teens in Siberia, and yes, probably Duluth too, who are messing with click-through rates by repeatedly hitting ads. But the big question isn't whether or not this nefarious stuff is going on.It's whether or not this evil stuff (to borrow the Googlite phrase "do noevil") is going on to an extent that Google's customers will be surprisedto find out about. It's related to how advertisers in television and magazines (and all other media) have to account for TVs that are left on for the dogs while nobody's home, or for subscribers who never open the magazine. And guess what --both the sellers and the buyers of such advertisements are aware of andaccount for this ahead of time. You see, Google tells its customers beforehand that there will be clickfraud, and it even accounts for that in its pitch. That's right, whenGoogle tells a customer that they can expect X return on investment (ROI)when using Google's ad network, Google's already included clickfraud in those numbers. So in essence, the only way for this supposed click-fraud issue to really become problematic is if it's worse thanGoogle realizes. Consider it the online marketplace version of Wall Street's "worse than expected" scenario.
Technician's Take: Google Is Tracking Toward Trouble by Dan FitzpatrickThis is an excerpt from a column originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 23.