What a tough life the Google ( GOOG) bears must have, Jim Cramer mused on his
"RealMoney" radio show Wednesday. The bears hated Google at $150, despised it at $250, wanted to crush it at $350 and can't bear to see it now above $420, he said. How the bears got it wrong, said Cramer, is by not understanding the mechanics of growth-fund investing. Cramer's thesis for valuing stocks starts with the "necessity issue," and Google is a stock that growth-fund managers must own to keep up with their performance benchmarks, he said. Google's accelerating revenue growth and the dearth of stocks with that kind of growth -- plus the high visibility of the stock -- means managers are compelled to own it, said Cramer. If you approach Google's valuation like that, you "have a starting point for understanding" the stock's rise. Cramer said growth-fund managers "only know comparison shopping," and they accept the valuations the market places on similar stocks. Bears who say Google "can't be worth X, no matter what" are using circular reasoning, said Cramer. A stock is worth what the market is paying, he said. More importantly, though, if a growth-fund manager owns a stock with inferior growth statistics to Google but is paying more for that stock relative to its growth than for Google, the manager is likely to sell it and buy Google, said Cramer. "That's why Google's rise seems inexorable to me. You still have lots of stocks that are more expensive than Google with growth stats that aren't as good," he said. Cramer said that although earnings can slip up -- and even though he has used a multiple of 50 as the value he is willing to place on Google's earnings -- for most of his life, he has actually "used the rule of thumb of twice the growth rate as the upper limit for the price-to-earnings ratio." Google is growing at 33%, he said, so "that means I should be willing to pay 66 times earnings for Google." He hasn't talked about that, though, "because I don't want to sound too absurd, even though I know it's the logic behind many of the buyers."
In the end, Cramer believes none of this would be a big deal if Google's stock split 10 for 1. But that isn't happening, he said. So he is sticking by his price target of $450.
Cramer's Callers and EmailersIn response to a question about Intel ( INTC), Cramer said the stock is "breaking out," and although he isn't sure why, he believes it could be because Intel has a "really good read on its quarter." Intel has lowered expectations to the point where if orders come in better than expected, it could ignite the stock. It could also be that a change in leadership at Fidelity's Magellan fund to a manager who is more bullish on tech means that the fund is buying Intel aggressively. Or it could be that Intel at about 18 times earnings was just trading too cheaply, said Cramer. Finally, Intel could just be finally participating into the "headlong rush" into tech. Commenting on First Marblehead ( FMD), Cramer said he believes the stock deserves to sell at a higher multiple. But after the stock's recent run to $33 from $23, he believes it needs to digest the move. He would probably be a buyer if the stock pulls back to $30, he said. Cramer said he would buy Allscripts Healthcare Solutions ( MDRX). Allscripts is participating in one of the biggest growth trends extant in point of care medicine and medication management. Of UnitedHealth Group ( UNH), Cramer said he is not selling. He has been bullish on UNH since the stock was about $30, so he doesn't want to be as aggressive except on pullbacks in the stock, which do occur with UNH. He wants to be ready to pounce when these happen. He believes 2006 will be a great year, and the stock is still inexpensive.
Am I Diversified?Cramer had these things to say about the positions in caller's portfolios. Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD): "Has gotten its act together."
Cendant ( CD): Cramer believes it will be at $25 a year from now. Bancolombia ( CIB): Cramer isn't sure why the stock was down about 5.5% Wednesday, but it is a "terrific" stock. If you have a big gain, don't be too greedy, though, he said. Walt Disney ( DIS): Cramer likes Viacom ( VIA) more than Disney. Ameritrade ( AMTD): Cramer just started buying Ameritrade for his charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPLUS . VeriSign ( VRSN): TheStreet.com Internet Review author, James Altucher, "likes it right here at $22," said Cramer. American Express ( AXP): "Terrific." Amgen ( AMGN): Cramer believes it is "taking a breather" before working its way up again. NitroMed ( NTMD): Cramer believes the company's hypertension drug is huge, and it will become apparent soon. NitroMed's stock will make a comeback "without a doubt." Autodesk ( ADSK): Cramer likes Microsoft ( MSFT) better. Boyd Gaming ( BYD): Cramer prefers Harrah's Entertainment ( HET). Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS): "Screwed up the quarter." Cramer is mad at the company, although it could get bailed out by a rising market, he said. Thermo Electron ( TMO): Cramer is surprised the stock hasn't moved up more. He would buy it up to $35. TMO traded at $30.57 late Wednesday. Jarden ( JAH): The company reported a good quarter and then sold stock, which knocked the stock down. That's not what Cramer wanted to see, he said. TurboChef Technologies ( OVEN): Cramer would not want to sell with the stock stalled at about $14.50. A lot of people think TurboChef's ovens could be the next big thing, he said.
Fixing a 401(k)Cramer remains bullish on the ( FCNTX) Fidelity Contrafund and will remain so as long as it is run by Will Danoff, he said. He would recommend investing 20% of available funds in the fund each quarter for four quarters, using the remaining 20% to add an extra amount in case of a particularly big down quarter. Finally, Cramer said the market is running, and this is the reason we stay in the game. He is the most fully invested that he's been since he started managing his charitable trust. "Let's let it run a little bit. We're not done."