Investing would be so easy if only it were about events that happen as expected. The problem is that most important moves in the market are unexpected, deviate from norms and cannot be counted in conventional ways. This is always a bummer, but particularly so now, as investors try to determine whether the zippy early-November bounce is the start of an exciting new charge higher or a pointless countertrend rally doomed to fail. The usual ways of making this determination -- via forecasts for earnings and global economic growth -- don't seem to be working right now, and new research says they never did. So rather than rely on those, we'll turn to the views of market veterans who focus simply on the demand for stocks. First, let me explain why the old ways don't work.