This column was originally published on RealMoney on Oct. 24 at 3:00 p.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.It is often the case with big moves that they occur because people are poorly positioned for the next set of events. Last week, lots of hedge funds turned violently negative on the market because of its failure to hold the gains of Wednesday's key reversal day. To me, that was nonsense, just quintessential options expiration shenanigans. And we had seen that there were many positives underneath that action, including some good tech and financial earnings, and excellent reaction to both. No matter; the bears were all over the tape shorting into Friday's action. They figured, I bet, that the irrational oil sellers would be back -- no way, they were Refco ( RFXCQ), and Refco finished selling on expiration, as I said it would -- and that we would have more subpar earnings this week. Of course, the bears didn't figure that someone who favors higher stock prices like Ben Bernanke would be named to the Fed. Now, with Refco out of the way and no new negative earnings news, you get no new supply. Plus, you get a good number from Arch Coal ( ACI) that reminds us about how much money these resource companies are really making. If you question that, take a look at Schlumberger ( SLB). It reported last week in the midst of the Refco selloff and went down; now it's rallying well past where it was when the quarter was reported. Plus, as oil comes down, people are gravitating to the cyclicals. That group is enjoying a classic oversold move. To me, as a short-term bull, the key will come with Texas Instruments ( TXN), which I believe will be strong, validating the bottom in the SOX and, in part, rallying the tech complex off the confusion that was Broadcom's ( BRCM) decline matched with Analog Devices' ( ADI) advance.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Refco to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices. P.S. from TheStreet.com Editor-in-Chief, Dave Morrow:
It's always been my opinion that it pays to have more -- not fewer -- expert market views and analyses when you're making investing or trading decisions. That's why I recommend you take advantage of our free trial offer to TheStreet.com RealMoney premium Web site, where you'll get in-depth commentary and money-making strategies from over 50 Wall Street pros, including Jim Cramer. Take my advice -- try it now.