Baby bull calves were born today on the floor of the market, said Jim Cramer on his "Real Money" TV show Thursday. Despite the red ink in the major indices, "today was a breakout day" for the banks and for tech stocks, he said. Sectors that can withstand a selloff like Thursday's, will rally when things get better, he said. Tech, especially, is the new leadership, said Cramer, with Google ( GOOG), Qualcomm ( QCOM), Motorola ( MOT), Apple Computer ( AAPL), Juniper Networks ( JNPR), SanDisk ( SNDK) and Yahoo! ( YHOO) leading the way. Among banks, Wachovia ( WB) and JP Morgan Chase ( JPM) were standouts Thursday. Cramer likes tech and financials on any weakness, he said.
Raising the BarCramer said the fallout from Refco ( RFXCQ) will likely boost the stock of FTI Consulting ( FCN) as more companies rush to find out if they might have hidden legal agreements of the kind that brought down Refco. Refco's law firm had apparently checked off on a document that led to the fourth-largest bankruptcy in history, said Cramer. FTI will win because you can't realistically hire a law firm to investigate another law firm, he said. The legal profession just doesn't work that way. But, you can hire FTI Consulting, which Cramer called a kind of "CSI" of corporate fraud. FTI's stock is near a 52-week high, said Cramer, because the company also has a bankruptcy business, which has been booming as distressed debtors rushed to file bankruptcy before a new, tougher bankruptcy law went into effect earlier this week. But, that trade is now over, said Cramer. However, Cramer doesn't believe that the market yet fully appreciates that FTI will become the chief investigator in a post-Refco world. FTI Consulting "is in a real sweet spot," he said.
Things Fall ApartEveryone knows which stocks to short when oil and natural gas futures fall. So, take the flipside and look for less obvious trades in companies that stand to benefit from lower prices such as gaming stocks and chemical stocks, said Cramer. Two stocks Cramer likes are Boyd Gaming ( BYD) and PPG Industries ( PPG). Boyd Gaming was down almost every week when oil prices were on the rise, said Cramer. But, with oil prices lower, Boyd should benefit as people become more willing to drive to Boyd's casinos. Additionally, with two analysts upgrading Boyd today, Cramer believes that the risk is out of the stock. As natural gas falls, look to the chemical companies, which are heavy users of natural gas, said Cramer. Cramer has been buying PPG. Every dollar that natural gas goes down is 25 cents up for PPG, he said. Cramer added that PPG reported a "magnificent quarter" Thursday morning, as most investors were expecting the company to fall apart. Cramer believes that the risk is out of PPG stock, as well. The way to know if he's right on the chemical stocks is if we see more than one day of rallying, Cramer said. "Today was day one."
Renaissance FareRenaissance Learning ( RLRN) was up 16% Thursday after Legg Mason upgraded the stock, said Cramer. But, don't be tempted to chase it, and if you own it, you should ring the register, he said. The educational software company's fundamentals may be OK, business may be fine and the stock may even be undervalued, said Cramer, but because co-chairs Judith Paul and Terrance Paul own about one-third of the shares outstanding, he's not too enthusiastic. In some scenarios, this could be a good thing as it might be a sign of confidence in the company, Cramer said. However, in the case of Renaissance, the company paid a special $71.6 million dollar dividend in 2004 and "did the same thing this year," said Cramer, adding that the company's cash balance had fallen year over year. Stay away from the stock, he said, because "right now, I just see two co-chairmen leading the company in order to put some special dividend cash in their pockets."
Ne Plus UltraUltra Petroleum ( UPL) CEO Michael Watford joined Cramer by telephone. Cramer asked Watford what he is hearing regarding Refco and the seemingly endless liquidation of oil and gas stocks. "I don't know much about that, Jim, at all," said Watford. Cramer asked Watford if oil futures were indicating a big falloff in prices. Watford said they weren't. In the short term, oil is priced well above $60 a barrel, he said, and in the long term it is above $50. Cramer asked if the decline in UPL's stock is just a matter of people forgetting the fundamentals and taking profits because they have big gains. "I think that's clearly what's going on," said Watford. "We have a long-term story here in energy that's about limited supply and growing demand." Cramer asked if Chinese demand for oil had perhaps been satisfied. "No. They still like it. In fact, they're buying more and more of it," Watford said. Cramer summed up the interview saying, "I would buy Ultra Petroleum right here, right now."
BullishCramer was bullish on Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF), Schering-Plough ( SGP), Wyeth ( WYE), Novartis ( NVS), Prudential Financial ( PRU), MetLife ( MET), First Marblehead ( FMD), First Data ( FDC), Weyerhaeuser ( WY), Wal-Mart ( WMT), TJX ( TJX), PetroQuest Energy ( PQUE) and Duke Energy ( DUK).
BearishCramer was bearish on Toll Brothers ( TOL), OSI Pharmaceuticals ( OSIP), Ford ( F), Callaway Golf ( ELY), Endo Pharmaceuticals ( ENDP), SkyWest ( SKYW), Netflix ( NFLX), Eli Lilly ( LLY), Sirius Satellite Radio ( SIRI), Allstate ( ALL), BlackRock ( BLK), Global Payments ( GPN), Zimmer Holdings ( ZMH), Sinovac Biotech ( SVA), Vectren ( VVC), Phelps Dodge ( PD) and Calpine ( CPN).
|1.||Pigs Get Slaughtered||2.||It's OK to Pay the Taxes|
|3.||Don't Buy All at Once||4.||Buy Damaged Stocks|
|5.||Diversify to Control Risk||6.||Do Your Homework|
|7.||Don't Panic||8.||Buy Best-of-Breed|
|9.||Defend Some Stocks||10.||Don't Bet on Bad Stocks|
|11.||Own Fewer Names||12.||Cash Is for Winners|
|13.||No Regrets||14.||Expect Corrections|
|15.||Know Bonds||16.||Don't Subsidize Losers|
|17.||No Room for Hope||18.||Be Flexible|
|19.||Quit When Execs Do||20.||Patience Is a Virtue|
|21.||Be a TV Critic||22.||When to Wait 30 Days|
|23.||Beware the Hype||24.||Explain Your Picks|
|25.||Find the Bull Market|