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Here we are, back at the recent lows. Oddly enough, a lot of people seem to be hoping for a break of the lows so they can buy them Monday morning.

I can make a case for a rally in here: The markets are oversold, the number of stocks making new lows didn't expand Friday, and the put/call ratio is zooming higher.

On the New York Stock Exchange, I could even argue that the cumulative advance/decline line hasn't made a new low yet.

On the Nasdaq, the oscillator is exactly where it was last week, despite the lower low in the average. That gives us some positive divergences.

But we have a problem. The 30-day moving averages of the A/D line on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq are not oversold anymore. They had their chance and gave it away. Now they must wait until Friday to get oversold again. We can't seem to get the shorter-term 10-day moving average and the more intermediate-term 30-day moving average to head in the same direction at the same time.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor index, or SOX, is now sitting at its 200-day moving average. Can it break it? Yes, but typically, the SOX will try its best to hold this general area. So even if it breaks the moving average, the index will tend to have a snapback rally to revert back to the moving-average line. The first break of the long-term moving average line usually acts like a magnet, drawing it back to the line.

My concern for the market comes from the Philadelphia Stock Exchange/KBW Bank index, or BKX. I think the pattern developing in this chart is worth discussing once again. First, it broke this longstanding uptrend line. It then rallied back to the underside of this line for its first failure. Now it's dropping again. This action has given way to a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, with a neckline now sitting at the recent lows in the 985 area.

The relationship between the S&P 500 and the BKX has also caught my eye. Each time this ratio has gotten to the low 90 area, the banks have backed off. Each time it gets above 90, the banks revert to a period of underperformance. It's time for these stocks to take a backseat once again.

The market remains caught between the shorter-term 50-day moving average line that resides overhead and the longer-term 200-day moving average that sits just below the current trading levels. I believe we're witnessing a change in trend from up to down.

Last year, the market was characterized by its persistence, not by its excitement and tendency to soar higher. That's one reason why I kept saying that it wasn't a bubble in the same way 1999-2000 was. Now we seem to have much the same on the downside: persistence and not much excitement.

Helene Meisler, based in Shanghai, writes a technical analysis column on the U.S. equity markets and updates her charts daily. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. At time of publication, she held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hmeisler@thestreet.com.

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