Despite a huge plunge in bond yields recently, analysts say a repeat of June 2003 -- when market interest rates bottomed at close to 3% -- probably isn't in the cards.

After a disappointing employment report Friday, the yield on the 10-year note began to spiral lower and is now sitting at 3.72%, the lowest level since July 14. The move down has ignited speculation over whether yields are headed back toward a low of 3.11%, which was last seen on June 13.

But bond market analysts and traders believe that's unlikely. While they do expect yields to fall further going forward, possibly to 3.45%, they say economic expectations for the second half of the year would have to be ratcheted down significantly in order for yields to retreat as much as they did last year.

"I cannot imagine yields trading to 3.10% without a major event, like the economy turning south," said one bond trader.

In the wake of the jobs report, analysts sharply reduced the odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in August and September. The Fed has said it won't raise rates until hiring starts to pick up, and so far, there's been little evidence of that.

The change in rate expectations -- fed funds futures aren't fully pricing in a rate hike until November now -- caught many bond investors off guard, forcing them to cover short positions. A J.P. Morgan survey in the lead-up to the nonfarm payroll data showed that just 12% of fixed-income investors believed that bond yields would head lower over the near term.

"People were not aligned for this," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed income at Julius Baer. "This is a pain trade."

While short-covering could send yields down to 3.45%, Robbins said he doesn't expect a more drastic slide. In fact, he said things are quite different today from how they were when the 10-year was sitting at 3.11%.

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