Lehman Brothers Tuesday downgraded Delta Air Lines ( DAL) to equal-weight from overweight, saying that while the stock is its first choice in the space, the price has gotten ahead of fundamentals. Analyst Gary Chase recommended investors take a look at Northwest Airlines ( NWAC) or AirTran ( AAI) instead, upgrading both to overweight from equal-weight.

"These ratings changes are valuation-based, and do not reflect a significant shift in our fundamental views on any of the affected companies," said Chase. "Delta has nearly achieved our previous $16 target, and, even on our new numbers, we see less near-term equity upside in Delta than in AirTran and Northwest."

Northwest shares jumped on the note, gaining 49 cents, or 4.5%, to $11.36, joined by AirTran, up 42 cents, or 4.9%, to $9.02. Delta was off 16 cents, or 1%, to $15.34.

Despite concerns over valuation, the Lehman note was optimistic about industry fundamentals, narrowing loss estimates for fiscal 2003 and establishing new forecasts for fiscal 2005 and 2006. By 2005, Chase said, all of the major airlines he covers will be profitable, and while Chase said the 2006 earnings forecasts were for "illustrative purposes only," he added that it could represent peak earnings potential for the sector.

Based on his new estimates, by 2006, the share prices of Delta, Continental Airlines ( CAL), Alaska Airlines ( ALK) and America West ( AWA) could be double current levels, with Northwest potentially tripling, Chase said.

Because the airline industry is cyclical in nature, airlines have used this downturn in business to make deep cuts to fixed costs like wages, aircraft leases and pension plans, giving them leverage when business picks up. And because there's a lag between a potential increase in demand and the amount of time it takes to deliver deferred airplanes, Chase said, airlines could be on track for an powerful snapback from depressed levels.

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