Possible management defections, "headline risk" related to second-quarter catastrophe charges, and questions about Chubb's ( CB) capital position could pressure the insurer's stock price, a Wachovia Securities analyst said.

While the stock was up 21% in May, that'll probably be where the good news ends, according to Susan Spivak. She believes the company's positive fundamentals are already priced into its $58.67 share price, despite a near 9% fall this month. Spivak downgraded the shares to underperform from market perform.

Other risks include a change in the competitive pressures in the market; potential additional reserve strengthening; and catastrophe losses.

Preliminary April and May losses from storms totaling 28 cents a share and a charge from an old fire claim of 10 cents a share will impact second-quarter earnings, Chubb recently said . But the company currently expects $4.60 to $5 a share in 2003, in line with the analyst consensus of $4.87 a share.

Further, "The company needs to raise a significant amount of equity near-term based on rating agency comments about Chubb's capital position. And, potential reserving inadequacies on casualty business written in the late 1990s," Spivak said.

Recently, Chubb's board of directors named Robert Cox as Executive Vice President of Chubb & Son and head of Chubb Specialty Insurance. He replaced Ralph Jones, who will become president and chief executive of Arch Insurance Group. Jones was a longtime Chubb employee, said Spivak, and she sees the potential for more changes.

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