The rally from last fall's bottom has generated a significant change in the mentality of many investors and market commentators. The more thoughtful, realistic market analysis surrounding the secular bear market seems to have dissipated. Silly, unsubstantiated exhortations now rule the financial airwaves. "Buy now," blare many fund managers and investment advisers, "a new bull market is just beginning!" "Nasdaq 2000!" and "Buy Internet stocks!" they bellow, with nonsensical justification such as "Who knows how big this Internet thing can get?" Don't believe it. We've been there and done that. Ignore the spurious claims that valuations don't matter. Don't get seduced by the momentum fancy. Remember: many of the same faces that exhort investors to chase this rally counseled caution many hundreds of points lower. While the perma-bears have taken it on the chin lately, I think it's time to pay closer attention to their case. Don't get me wrong. At 60% net long, I am reasonably exposed to stocks in my portfolio. Only recently have I begun the process of trimming positions and hedging with shorts. But this represents a meaningful reversal from the advice of my last column. A few months ago, I expected a decent tradable rally through the spring. Now I think we are mostly through that process. In the short run, stocks may continue to move higher. In fact, I would much prefer to finish selling into a strong tape. Even I do not attempt to top-tick each rally. But just because stocks may continue to rise does not make their risk/reward scenario attractive at current valuation levels. Short-term moves are very unpredictable. I believe in the Random Walk theory because the market is so irrational, not because it's perfectly rational. A more speculative blowoff might start tomorrow, capping this powerful bear market rally. We just can't know what the next few weeks may bring.