Editor's note: This column was originally published March 11.
Short Until Proven LongWhile it's definitely a little late in the game to begin a wholesale short-selling campaign, looking at ways to establish and maintain some selective short positions might be useful. I and others have described how recent activity in the options market has been dominated by covered-call writing as investors look to generate income while preserving the potential for upside gains. If longs can try to improve their cost basis by selling options, so can the shorts. In this column I'm going to describe the mirror image of covered calls: selling puts against a short stock position. What's better is the fact that puts generally -- and that's the case now -- sport slightly higher premiums than calls, providing an improved rate of return.
Standing OutCognizant Technology Solutions ( CTSH) seems like a fine candidate for a covered put. First of all it operates in the space of e-business software, an area in which renewed spending is arguably suspect, and the stock still sports a multiple of more than 40 times 2003 earnings estimates. More importantly, the chart looks lousy.
|Be Cognizant ... |
And be careful at these levels
The stock is already rolling over here at $70, and support doesn't come until the gap formed between $63 and $64.50. In early trading Monday morning, with the stock at $69, one could sell the April $65 put for $2. That would give you a purchase price of $63, for a maximum potential profit of $6. The break-even point is $71. On the basis of the chart, an investor should use a stop to close out the position (buy back both the short stock and short put) if it closes above the recent high at $71.20. On Tuesday the stock traded below $67. The chart still looks bearish, but unless you are an aggressive short, you might want to wait for slightly better prices before putting on the position. Devon Energy ( DVN) is another potential covered put candidate. The shares rose to $50.30 last month after the company announced plans to acquire Ocean Energy ( OEI).
|Trouble Near |
Devon might work as an energy short
Now it looks like the stock will have trouble crossing and closing above the $51 to $52 level. With Devon trading at $49.50, the April $45 put can be sold for 75 cents. This provides profit potential down to $44.25 and a break-even of $50.25. Then there's Nike ( NKE). I don't think the swoosh will have the juice to break through resistance at $52.
|Marathon or Sprint? |
Caution may be the best approach here
With Nike trading at $48, the April $45 put was trading $1. I would suggest being patient here and seeing if Nike can trade back to the $50 range before initiating a position. Keep in mind these are just examples. There are other stocks and sectors that could be considered for this type of strategy, such as hotel and leisure stocks. Even though these names have already taken it on the chin, it might take them a while to get up off the mat, considering that the unknowns about war and terrorism continue to dominate the headlines.