A Working Hypothesis With the Wilshire 5000

Editor's Note: Gary B. Smith's column runs exclusively on RealMoney.com; this is a special free look at his column. For a free trial subscription to RealMoney.com, click here. This article was published Feb. 25 on RealMoney.

Just how low can we go? Impossible to say, of course, but it's useful to at least come up with some theories. Along that line, it's useful to take a broad look at the market and make some assumptions.

Therefore, I'll use the Wilshire 5000 index as a broad-brush look at all of the indices. The assumption? That we would've gone down after Sept. 11, but not to the blowoff lows we finally achieved.

With that in mind, the chart below shows us taking a hit of maybe another 5%. Then, we might find logical support.

Make sense? Probably. An accurate forecast? We'll call it a working hypothesis for now!

Today the Wilshire 5000, the Nasdaq, Black Box ( BBOX), ServiceMaster ( SVM), Comverse Technology ( CMVT), TriQuint Semiconductor ( TQNT), Spectrian ( SPCT) and Xilinx ( XLNX).










And that is the final word from Prince Edward Island, where the combination of Team Canada, Sale and Pelletier and Roots has suddenly made our northern friends a hot commodity. Curling, anyone?

Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. At time of publication, he held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes a daily technical analysis column for RealMoney.com and produces a daily premium product for TheStreet.com called The Chartman's Top Stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback to Gary B. Smith.

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