The odds of a recession occurring in the near term are nearly nil since current economic data demonstrate signs of expansion.
The probability of a recession transpiring is only 10%, said Torsten Slok, chief international economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. The fears of a recession are overblown, because the number of people losing jobs is declining and "at the lowest levels in decades," he said.
"If we were about to enter a recession, layoffs would be going up, not down," Slok said.
Workers who receive lower wages are also obtaining more positions and higher wages, he said in a research report.
"They have a higher marginal propensity to consume, which all is good news for consumer spending," Slok said.
During the next 12 months, the chances of a recession taking place are slim, said C.J. Brott, founder of Capital Ideas, a registered investment advisor in Dallas.
"I would place them at 10% to 20%," he said. "Ruling out extraordinary events, such as a collapse of European Banks, I think the odds remain low."
One major leading economic indicator is the ratio of the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to the Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), which is 124.1. It has fallen less than .01% from its June 2015 high.
"Normally, it tends to fall on average 9% from the high reading before recessions start," Brott said.
The economic growth rate of 1.4%, the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and wage growth all appear solid, eliminating the odds of a recession starting, said Patrick Morris, CEO of New York-based HAGIN Investment Management.
While the most recent housing number was "soft, it's not enough data to make any determination as to whether this represents a tip of the iceberg data point," he said. Since crude oil and gas prices are both low, inflation is absent and wage growth is strong for the first time in a long time.
"The chances now are about 0," Morris said. "The probability of a recession in the next three months is less than 2%."
The U.S. presidential election is the "big wildcard," since a Donald Trump win would result in a massive decline in stocks because of the uncertainty of his policies, he said. His views on debt could result in steep declines in the bond market also.
The outcome of the election could push the U.S. into a recession and the odds are 33% through 2017, said Robert Johnson, president of The American College of Financial Services in Bryn Mawr, Penn.
"A Clinton victory would represent somewhat of a continuation of the economic path that we are on and there certainly is a chance of recession going forward," he said. "A Trump victory involves more unknown and he has espoused bold economic moves - slashing tax rates, increasing military spending, increasing infrastructure spending and changing immigration policies. His policies would increase the odds of a recession."
Consumer confidence is pretty high currently and that sentiment is encouraging, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate, a New York-based financial content company.
"The U.S. economy has for some time been stuck in a 1% to 2% GDP glide path rather than 3% to 4% as the global economy is underperforming," he said. "We hope business and consumer sentiment can continue in a positive vein."
An optimal move would be businesses investing additional capital as "consumers have been lifting the economy on their backs," Hamrick said.
The U.S. dollar has reverted closer to its old levels and the energy sector earnings are improving from the beginning of the year, which are all economic indicators that the odds of a recession remain low, said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust, a Radnor, Penn.-based investment firm.
"Data is still improving, but since there's still room for improvement, it signals that we haven't yet hit a top," he said. "The Fed's lower for longer interest rate policy is a good thing for the markets as well."
The fear and anxiety exhibited about the economy only reflects current sentiment.
"Recessions aren't born out of fear and anxiety, they are caused by greed and excess," Smith said. "We don't see greed or excess in the markets and therefore don't see high probability of a recession."