Santorum Dodging Romney's Assaults
NEW YORK (
) -- Rick Santorum isn't Newt Gingrich, and that could save him from Mitt Romney's mud-slinging.
Romney has ramped up his attacks against Santorum two weeks ahead of the Feb. 28 Michigan primary as the former Pennsylvania senator has surged past Romney in multiple polls there.
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"Gingrich, I think, was a very flawed candidate even at his peak," Gregory Magarian, election law professor at Washington University in St. Louis, says. "He had a very checkered personal history ... He's just not a very likable character; I think going negative against him was easy."
Gingrich rolled over Romney in the South Carolina primary as the former House speaker criticized his opponent's private equity work and his tax returns, but Romney buried the former House speaker in Florida as he criticized Gingrich's Freddie Mac problem.
Romney handily won Florida and appeared to be on his way to the party nomination until last Tuesday when
Santorum's grassroots organization pulled off a
triple victory in Minnesota, Missouri and, surprisingly, Colorado.
"It's inevitable
negative ads are going to happen when you look at it, and
when Romney starts to lag a little bit, that's when it all starts," a Santorum aide said in an interview. "It doesn't necessarily come from his campaign -- it comes from the super PAC that supports him -- and we fully expect it."
Santorum hasn't ignored Romney's assault as he released an ad Wednesday in Michigan that called out Romney for his
incessant negativity towards GOP opponents.
Romney crippled Gingrich in Florida as the state's size encourages campaign races to dominate by television and radio ads. But Michigan could compliment Santorum's grassroots strategy with boots-on-the-ground tactics undercutting the airwave attacks.
"Michigan's a big state but it isn't Florida, it isn't a state where being able to play the big media game is something that can confer massive advantage," Magarian says. "Michigan does not have the sort of high-intensity population centers that Florida does."
Santorum leads Romney in an average of major Michigan polls by about 9 percentage points, according to
RealClearPolitics.com
and the former senator didn't even have a formal presence in the state until some 48 hours ago, according to a Santorum campaign source.
Santorum's camp thinks that a win in Michigan would show their viability to Republican voters as the race heads to Super Tuesday. It could also be damaging to Romney's campaign from a perception standpoint if he lost the state where he grew up and where his father was once governor.
Romney's people have to define their candidate's winning appeal in Michigan if they want to beat Santorum, Magarian says. It was relatively easy in Florida to cast Gingrich as grandiose, erratic and a Washington insider. Santorum poses different characteristics.
So far, Romney has hit Santorum for earmarks he passed in Congress and support he showed for big labor. Romney has sustained earmark criticisms for a week, but that hasn't prevented a Santorum surge in polls. Attacks against Santorum's ties with big labor are relatively new, which means it's too early to discern their effectiveness.
The Santorum campaign source said that Romney certainly could throw stuff at them, but added that Romney still must explain "Romneycare" and his moderate record as the Massachusetts governor. Santorum's status as the last remaining anti-Romney may also help his cause.
"Newt spiked because he was perceived as the last man standing, at a certain point; well, we really are the last man standing," the Santorum source said. "Voter's start to realize, 'This is it, there's no other choice, no one else who's going to walk through the door and save the Republican Party from Mitt Romney.'"
Romney will certainly lob strikes against Santorum, but unlike calling out character flaws and unpredictable behaviors like he did against Gingrich, the former Massachusetts governor might have to beat Santorum on policy -- conservative policy.
Romney's opposition research is sure to find Santorum's bad legislation during his two decades in Congress, but the key will be to successfully paint the former senator as a weak conservative.
"Santorum, yeah he played ball in the Senate sometimes, but he's been a staunch conservative all along ... The attacks on Santorum
that he's too liberal, seriously? I just don't think coming from Mitt Romney that's credible," Magarian says.
-- Written by Joe Deaux in New York.
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