Hillary Clinton's policies would result in an improved U.S. economy, according to a recent analysis. That's the opposite of what the same group of economists said about Donald Trump's economic plans.
Of Friday, Moody's Analytics projected increased GDP growth and employment if the policies of the former secretary of state are enacted if she is elected president.
"Secretary Clinton's economic proposals will result in a somewhat stronger U.S. economy," writes Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's and lead author of the report. The economists cite spending and reform plans that support modest near-term and long-term growth.
The report's release comes in the wake of the Democratic National Convention and Clinton's acceptance of her party's nomination for president.
If all of Clinton's policies were adopted as she proposes them on her website, Moody's estimates real GDP would grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% through 2020, there would be 10.5 million more Americans working, and unemployment would dip to a low of 3.7%. The average American household's real after-tax income would jump by about $2,000 over that period.
The Moody's numbers for Trump? GDP would grow by 0.6% through 2020, 400,000 fewer Americans would be working and minimum wage would hit 6.8%.
Clinton's plans for immigration and for infrastructure, Moody's argues, would offset negative effects of her proposals for an increased minimum wage, tax increases and larger budget deficits.
Clinton's tax plan, Moody's notes, would make the U.S. tax system more complex and less transparent. Her proposals would add several forms of a minimum tax to the code and make capital gains taxation more complex. On a static basis, it raises an estimated $1.46 trillion more in tax revenue, and only those with incomes of over $300,000 would see their taxes increase meaningfully.
"Clinton's tax proposals would raise substantial revenue and make the tax system meaningfully more progressive," Zandi writes.
Clinton would use the additional revenue to foot the bill for government spending, including increases on infrastructure, education, paid family leave and economic development. She has also proposed eliminating the sequester -- cuts to defense and discretionary nondefense sending -- that will be reinstituted in 2018.
But all this economic growth would come at a cost: increased government spending. By Moody's calculation, Clinton's spending plans would cost $2.2 trillion over 10 years, meaning budget deficits of $750 billion more than under current law. Both budget deficits and spending on servicing debt interest would balloon to over $1 trillion by 2020.
But there are other parts of her proposals that could make up for it.
Clinton's support for immigration reform like the "Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013" -- also known as the "Gang of Eight bill -- would be a boost to the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office's analysis determined the bill would have increased real GDP by 3.3% in 10 years and resulted in nearly 6 million more jobs.
On trade, Clinton appears to have become more hawkish, referencing her pivot to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal she once supported. And on minimum wage, she has proposed a federal floor of $12 (though she has said she would accept the $15 often cited by Bernie Sanders and other Democrats). Moody's doesn't include the TPP in its economic analysis, and on minimum wage, it notes that theories on economic impact are complicated. Most low-wage workers would see higher pay, but some low-wage jobs would be eliminated.
Of course, it is unlikely Clinton would be able to pass all of her proposals through what will probably be a Congress that is controlled by Republicans.
Were her plans to be scaled back by the legislature but still make it through in some form, the economy would still benefit, with GDP and job growth continuing, according to Moody's. If they were to get the full congressional treatment, the economy's performance would be similar to under current law.
All of this comes in stark contrast to the firm's analysis of Republican nominee Donald Trump's plans, which it argues would significantly hurt the economy and lead to a lengthy recession.
"Secretary Clinton's economic policies when taken together will result in a stronger U.S. economy under almost any scenario," Zandi writes.