What Now Wednesday – Will 10 Fed Speakers Stop the Slide?
Last Wednesday I listed Impeachment as one of the reasons we were cashing out our portfoliosas the market went back to the top and BOY are we happy we did that! Impeachment is a pretty big uncertainty to throw at the market and the expectation of that (which came to pass yesterday) along with all the other issues we saw looming for Q4 gave us good reason to get to CASH!!! and see where things land during the final earnings season for the year.
We also didn't believe China was "fixed" and apparently it is not though now the pressure is on Trump to pull that rabbit out of his hat in order to distract people from all the other scandals he's drowing in – just like Nixon did when he opened relations with China in February, 1972 – ahead of his own re-election campaign. The Committee to RE-Elect the President (or CREEP) didn't break into the Watergate hotel until June of 1972 and it took all the way until July 27th of 1974 for there to finally be an impeachment hearing and Nixon resigned on August 9th, 1974, leading to two glorious years of Gerald Ford, which made Chevy Chase's career.
So it's going to be chaos for the next few weeks but don't worry, we have TEN (10) Fed speaches to guide us through the rest of the week, starting with Chicago's Charlie Evans, who already said this morning that not only is trade policy uncertainty slowing U.S. business investment decisions, limits on trade and immigration could mean slower potential economic growth overall. Evans supports more rate cuts and seems to be preparing us for a weak GDP Report tomorrow morning – possibly below 2%.
This is the 3rd revision of Q2, which started off closer to 3% (and the markets went higher on that BS) but was revised down dramatiallly as Residential Fixed Investment (includes Durable Goods) declined 2.9% and state and local Government Spending was revised down to 2.3% from 3.2% while net exports dropped 0.72%. Only Consumer Spending was a bright spot and we just got a TERRIBLE Consumer Confidence Report yesterday (125.1 vs 134.2 in Aug) - so it's not likely that's going to improve – though it's still historically high.
Note that expectations have dipped below 100 as people turn much more pessimistic on the economy – even though their present situation is still very good. It's also interesting to note that Consumers see inflation running at 4.8% while the Government officially says it's 2.1% and, based on that complete and utter BS, they are only raising Social Security benefits by 1.6% in 2020 (it was 2.8% in 2019).
That 1.2% drop may not seem like much – just $24 a month out of a $2,000 benefit payment – but it's $13.2Bn Trump gets to take away from old people so he can give it to his kids, campaign donors and other rich friends.
Here's a quick quiz you can take since we have this budget chart – see if you can find Corporate Taxes? We have a PLANNED $1Tn budget shortfall but, in reality, we passed $1Tn in August already yet, under Trump's Tax Cuts, Corporations are paying just $221Bn (and they are paying less than $200Bn in reality) despite earning $2.25 TRILLION in the first quarter of 2019.
Q2 has been weaker, with just $1.9Tn beind reported so far so you can't expect them to come up with $13.1Bn (0.7%) just to keep Grandma from having to eat cat food, can you? Once upon a time in America (until the 60s), Corporations used to pay 2/3 (66%) of all tax revenues, now it's 6.3% – ONE TENTH (1/10) of what they used to pay – and they still complain about that! Since they are never going to be happy anyway – why not let Elizabeth Warren loose and give them something real to complain about?
Instead, the Corporations have taken over our Government and they have taken over the courts, which is why they are now considered to be Citizens (see Citizens United), which has given them control of the Senate and they are working on the House and they clearly control the GOP and, if you do want to stop them – this coming election is probably your last chance because we're either going to reverse this tide or it's going to drown us!
Trump isn't the whole problem – he's just a symptom of what's really wrong with this country – Oiligarchy…