Although that's down a bit from our October Portfolio Review, that's only because we cashed out the old Short-Term Portfolio back on October 28th and we didn't carry the gains forward due to a discrepancy arising from the Tesla (TSLA) split so we reset the STP to $200,000 from $620,909 so really, we've made incredible gains in the last month as the LTP was only $974,283 on the day we re-set – as we got heavily bullish during that mini-crash.
As is has been all year, our timing was pretty perfect and the LTP has rocketed back from $974,283 to $1,295,033 as of Tuesday's review, which is up $320,750 (33%) in 33 days as the S&P flew back from 3,250 to 3,600 (up 10.7%). Of course that's ridiculous and of course we were lucky to time it perfectly so OF COURSE we took the money and ran on Tuesday, cashing in 40% of our LTP positions – enough is enough!
As the great stock trader, Kenny Rogers tells us:
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
S&P 3,600 is certainly enough and certainly too much to risk as we're up more than 50% in 4 years (thank you, Mr. Trump – now LEAVE!) and that's more than double the usual 8% you can expect to gain annually and maybe it will keep going and maybe it won't but we're very confident we can make more money if the bull cycle continues so why risk the holidays when we can lock in these kinds of gains?
With that logic, we'll be taking a look at our other Member Portfolios as we're only at S&P 3,576 this morning, still shorting the Nasdaq (/NQ) below the 12,000 line (now 12,005) as well as the 3,600 line on the S&P Futures (/ES). I'm not going to get into it again – let's just say I don't trust the market or the economy enough to stay too bullish between now and Inauguration Day (Jan 20th).
Earnings Portfoliol Review: $202,148 is up 102% for the year and up 15% since our last review as we were not as aggressive as our LTP. The earnings portfolio is about 50% CASH!!! already and it's got a built-in hedge (SQQQ). Since last month, we added short calls on SBUX, which aren't going well and a long play on PETS, which is going well.
- SBUX – Looks like we'll have to roll it. The April $95s are $8 so I'm not worried as I really don't think they break $100.
- HRB – Happy to let those ride. Biden should be good for tax preparers.
- IRBT – Net $50,000 out of a potential $70,000. I like IRBT enough to leave it on but we stop out if they fail to hold $75.
- PETS – New trade and we couldn't fill the short puts so we just have the bull spread so we're not worried if they dip as we wanted to sell puts anyway. Great for a new trade – I think this is a great bottom for them.
- ACB – Really popped for a bit but came back down. I still like them going forward.
- GILD – Washed out on Covid treatments or vaccines but it's a good, solid company. If it goes lower I'm happy to DD and keep going.
- HBI – Still cheap at net $2,525 on the $10,000 spread and all HBI has to do is hit $15 in a year to make $7,475 (296%). Aren't options fun?
- INTC – One of my favorite bargain stocks, could be our 2021 Trade of the Year, in fact.
- M – Another huge bargain but getting away from us now. In fact, we'll have to cover soon.
- SQQQ – It's a $200,000 hedge that's $50,000 in the money at net $20,750 – what a FANTASTIC hedge this is! Gives us $180,000 of downside protection in a $200,000 portfolio for $20,750. Aren't options fun?
- WBA – Oh wait, THIS could be our stock of the year in 2021. Where will people be vaccinated? That's the burning question. If it's WBA and CVS, who already vaccinate about 20M people each per year (so they have the logical infrastructure to mass-distribute a vaccine – who else has that in place?).
So look at that, as sour as I am on the markets, these positions are too good to cut. They are also very well-hedged so not much to do but sit back and enjoy the holidays with this portfolio.
Dividend Portfolio Review: We haven't done a full review since September 18th and our Dividend Portfolio was only at 6.7% at the time so it's been a good couple of months as now we are up 29.4% for the year. That's right on track for our 20-30% annual goal and REALLY good for our first year as we haven't even had a chance to re-invest our earnings yet.
- GILD – Don't mind owning them for net $46.75 so no worries.
- EPD – Well over our target.
- ET – On track.
- IVZ – Brand new but took off fast.
- MO – If it wasn't a small entry, I would pull the plug but, as it is, I won't mind doubling down if the drop.
- SPG – Love them for next year.
- TWO – Well in the money.
- CHL – $30 is around our basis and we'll just see if they bounce back.
- F – Nicely in the money.
- M – Back on track. Nonetheless, we pre-rolled to the short 2023 $10 puts and now the 2022 $8 puts are no longer negative so let's cash them out so we don't have too much downside risk.
- PETS – New trade, still good for a new one.
- SIG – Yet another deep value table-banger takges off. So glad we went aggressive on them but time to cover. Let's sell 20 of the 2023 $30 calls for $12.50 ($25,000) and we'll be in what's left of the spread for a net credit and hopefully they start paying dividends again!
- SKT – You know how much I love these guys.
- T – Even better as a new trade. I still have faith with 5G and all.
Like our Butterfly Portfolio, the Dividend Portfolio is mostly self-covering and, of course, protected by the STP, so we're not too worried.