New times call for new paradigms, and Cramer signaled one recently with his call for the new "horsemen" of tech.
The old horsemen:
The new horsemen:
Research In Motion
Cramer says he's already catching flak for his new list, but the new names make perfect sense, he said on TheStreet.com TV Thursday.
The critics are baffled because they are using recent old thinking," Cramer said. From the 1980s to the 1990s, a great growth stock just kept doubling, he explained. However, after 2000 we are in a period where stocks don't keep doing that. "So we start looking at them as opportunities to sell anytime they're up a lot."
The great thing about Wall Street, Cramer said, is that certain stocks periodically swing back in favor. The reason he has identified these new four horsemen is that market players are paying up for growth. People recognize that if Google grows at 33%, they can't give it a 25 multiple forever, he said.
"We can't give it a multiple that is too low vs.
Procter & Gamble
when those companies are single-digit growers and Google is a 33% grower," Cramer said. In addition, RIMM and Apple are both "big double-digit growers," and Amazon, just suddenly, became a 15% grower, he pointed out.
"I like all these companies because, unlike Cisco Dell, Intel and Microsoft, which had been the four horsemen, we've got no cyclicality here," Cramer said. "Those all became cyclical."
Cisco became hostage to the telco spend cycle, he said. Meanwhile, Dell, Intel and Microsoft became hostage to PCs, which used to be secular growth and are now mostly cyclical growth. There are no new product cycles coming from the retired four horsemen, Cramer added. The new horsemen, however, all have product cycles or "something secular going for them."
This is not to say he is bearish on the old horsemen. "Dell could double because Michael Dell is back, but that is not a secular growth, that is a great-man theory," Cramer said.
Michael Dell built a great company and is not back for no reason. What's really great about Dell, he said, is the skepticism with which he's being viewed. "The company caught three downgrades after he came back," Cramer said. "That again represents the old thinking that I'm talking about."
That said, he believes Dell can't grow as far as RIM or Apple because it doesn't have the kinds of new products as the latter two.
"But what it does have is the potential to have more gross margin than it's had because Michael Dell is a master at finding ways, on a nice revenue gain ... of making more profit," Cramer said. "I think getting off the Dell horse is wrong."
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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