For the past three years or more, it has paid to invest overseas, and October was no exception. The table below shows that mutual funds with an international focus (including global funds that have some U.S. exposure) outperformed their domestic counterparts in the first 10 months of the year as well as for the year and the three years ended Oct. 31.
But domestic funds are starting to close the gap, thanks largely to a record-breaking run in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
. As the table shows, the returns of domestic funds don't lag foreign funds by nearly as much for the past three and six months.
Looking at it another way, the U.S. current-account deficit is at record levels, which implies that the U.S. is importing goods in record quantities. These goods are being made, and the money is being earned, in the markets where foreign funds invest.
Investors should keep in mind that international funds will benefit from any devaluation of the U.S. dollar that may occur in 2007 and onwards. However, the direction of the U.S. dollar is very difficult to predict, and this currency aspect of international funds is noted only as a potential additional benefit to international investing in the current economic climate.
For investors considering whether to put money overseas, it may be helpful to take a closer look at performance of different kinds of foreign and domestic funds over both the short term and long term.
The Street.com Ratings looks at a universe of some 10,600 stock mutual funds and separates this universe into 21 separate categories or sectors. In each category, we will only look at only the top 20 rated funds as determined by our models. This will focus our attention on the most profitable funds in each category, and because we are displaying average returns, remove any bias that would occur given that some categories have more funds in them than others.
So these averages are calculated using the same number of funds in each category, and only the best-rated funds to make the comparisons as even as possible.
The second table below shows that, despite a slowing housing market, real estate is the only category of funds besides non-U.S. equity that has remained in the top five for the year-to-date, one year and three years ended Oct. 31. Although softer home prices and lower home sales have hit stocks of homebuilders and mortgage lenders, many real estate funds are benefiting from large holdings of real estate investment trusts. Some of the best performers also invest in properties in the U.K. and Europe.
Our top-rated real estate funds that are still open for new investment and require a minimum initial investment of $5,000 or less are
JPMorgan U.S. Real Estate C
(which we rate A) and
Old Mutual Heitman REIT Fund
(also rated A). The top holdings of both funds include
Simon Property Group
For the year-to-date, the other top performers include precious metals, utilities and small-cap funds.
Non-U.S. equity funds, which invest only in markets outside the U.S., are the only international category to make the top five categories for the year-to-date. Global equity funds, which invest both in the U.S. and abroad, and emerging-market funds are just outside but still showing competitive returns.
Now let's look at the three and six months ending Oct. 31. The Dow's rally has pushed all three international categories out of the top five rankings and, despite a mass of commentary about the fragile state of the U.S. real estate market, it clearly continues to drive investment returns here.
The bottom line is that if you believe that the Dow is headed for some type of pullback or correction, then you may want to take some money out of the U.S. market and move it overseas.
Let's put it another way -- how much higher can the Dow go in 2007? We may need the whole of 2007 to justify its current level. If you think it's headed for 13,000 and above, then the U.S. is the place to be and real estate, tech/communications, growth and income (essentially dividend-paying stocks), utilities and small-cap are the sectors to be in, according to our research.
If you think the Dow has had its day for now and you want to go international, you should definitely consider global equity funds and non-U.S. equity funds.
Among our top-rated global equity funds that are still open and have an investment minimum of $5,000 or less is
Principal Investment Divers International
(which we rate A+). Its top holdings include
Among non-U.S. equity funds, consider the A, B or C classes of
AIM European Growth
(all rated A+). It's top holdings include
Anglo Irish Bank
If you want to invest overseas and you can stomach more volatility, keep and eye on emerging markets. That's my pick for the last part of 2006 and into 2007.
Ignore the collapse in return these markets experienced in June this year, as shown by the paltry 0.40% return for the six months ended Oct. 31. Investors can read an explanation of what happened during this time and some of the risks associated with investing in such markets in my recent piece: The Street.com Ratings: A Latin American Growth Play
. Also note that emerging markets funds rebounded in the third quarter, posting returns of 3.85%.
Moreover, if the Fed decides to hold interest rates steady or go lower in 2007, these markets have the potential to come roaring back.
Our top picks that are still open and have an investment minimum of $5,000 or less are the A or B classes of
JPMorgan Emerging-Markets Equity
(both rated B). The top holdings of both include
Sam Patel, CFA, is the manager of mutual fund Research for the TheStreet.com Ratings.
In keeping with TSC's Investment Policy, employees of TheStreet.com Ratings with access to pre-publication ratings data must pre-clear any potential trade through the legal department, and are prohibited from trading any security that is the subject of an unpublished rating revision until the second business day after the rating is published.
While Patel cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback;
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