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We now are close enough to the war to act. I think the exquisite moment is upon us. The idea behind the exquisite moment is the same as it was in 1991: Wait until 24 hours before the war begins, and buy the weakness of the nervous longs who can't take the pain.
That's what we have today. That's what we will have tomorrow, so in these two days, I am committing capital I have kept on the sidelines for these moments.
(To see what I am buying and how I am putting money to work for the exquisite moment,
I make more money when I say "This time it won't be different" than when I say "This time it
be different." A war in Iraq will alleviate the incredible uncertainty that has gripped us since September. A successful war in Iraq will lower prices immediately, make the world safer and give good people confidence in this country and in the Middle East that this time the U.S. won't turn tail in the face of terrorism. A swift war will force those who aid terrorism worldwide to recognize that we are not here to negotiate with them but to slay them. A massive victory will give hope to all the moderates and out there that they no longer need fear the tyranny of al Qaeda or Hezbollah or Hamas or imams bent on murdering all who are not members of extreme Islamic sects.
Lots can go wrong, of course. But the market hates uncertainty more than anything else, and when uncertainty is cleared up, even in a messy and yes, bloody, way, markets rejoice. A virtuous cycle may be upon us.
No, war doesn't cure the telecom or airline woes. And it doesn't make corporate spending go up automatically. But in 1991 the confidence that flowed after the war allowed the lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. This time, a swift win will allow the lower interest rates
the tax cuts to work.
For that, it is not worth staying on the sidelines. This weakness, whether it lasts one day or two days, must be bought and be bought aggressively.
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