This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 7 at 1:56 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
It's getting a little depressing. No bull market seems to be working, except the bull market in
, I guess, or maybe
. We are seeing a little movement in the stocks that do better post-nuclear war, stuff like
, but the latter may just be the big Friday analyst meeting. I suppose the silver lining is that we aren't just waiting for
to sell; we are selling
I believe that we are working off the overbought conditions, that we are dealing with the prospect of a housing-related recession, because people still refuse to believe that
may not be a leader but may just be a company hurt more than the other homebuilders. We know the homebuilders are cutting prices, so that could lead to more downturns, plus we are all "shocked, shocked" by the fact that the energy complex is down, even though the weather has turned cold. I retort that the energy complex was up when it was warm out last week.
I know this selloff seems more than usual, like something structural, you know, like we're going to get three or four more quarter-point increases. I still insist that we won't have that, but we are due for two more.
My advice: Watch
Procter & Gamble
. It is, in many ways, the key to this market. If it starts rallying through to new highs, then I, too, might turn more negative. Instead, I just believe that we are in for a selloff related to two camps colliding: the recession camp and the inflation's-dead camp. I will take either one, because under no circumstances would the Fed take rates to 6 -- my real fear -- under either regime.
Infrastructure plays are being crushed. I would be a buyer. ...
down $5? Put me up on 50,000!
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