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Speaking of

looking through the valley of the shadow of earnings, have you noticed that

Sirius Satellite

(SIRI) - Get Report

seems to go down every day? I think that's because it is dawning on people that between now and when Howard Stern starts next year, you just have nothing but increasing red ink, and nobody's willing to swim in that red ink for the three quarters before Stern starts.

It's an especially dicey time for Sirius, which reports April 28, because the stock's hanging by a thread from the institutionally important $5 number. Institutions don't like to own stocks that sell for less than $5, in part because they are considered too junky -- see the myriad pieces I have written about

Lucent

( LU) and the need for a

reverse split.

Worse, individuals can't margin stocks that go below $5, and lots of people who own this stock are speculators who will have to put up capital if the stock doesn't hang in there.

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There's no doubt in my mind that Sirius has real value. There's also no doubt in my mind that Sirius, even below $5, doesn't represent value for the vast majority of institutions looking at it.

Bottom line: I think the world of Sirius chief Mel Karmazin. I like the company very much. But I think the losses are going to increase before they decrease, which will make it so

XM Satellite

( XMSR) will have a better story going forward.

Random musings:

Unforgiving cyclicals:

Rockwell

(ROK) - Get Report

, which really wasn't all that horrible but now has given up the whole year's gains. ... You have to like

VF

(VFC) - Get Report

off this terrific quarter; it represents one of the best names out there.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Lucent.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

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