"Maybe there's just too much of a vested interest in having the homebuilders go down," Jim Cramer said on his
"RealMoney" radio show Tuesday.
About a month ago, most of the remaining bulls in this sector decided that they couldn't defend the stocks anymore and downgraded the group, Cramer said.
"That's how all bottoms I have followed are formed," Cramer said. "You get everyone hating a stock at the bottom, and all the sellers are out."
At this point it's never been a pattern for market players to change their minds and become positive on a group. Instead, "they dig in their heels" and "stick by being negative," he said.
However, analysts and market players have not bothered to look at how homebuilders are acting, Cramer said. The fact is, these stocks are going up or staying flat on bad news. And as people who regularly listen to Cramer know, when a stock doesn't go down on bad news, "you have to sit up and take notice," he said.
Learn from the patterns of
, he said.
"I know this stuff because I've made the same mistake these guys are making," Cramer said. "In many ways it would be better for my image if I stayed negative, because consistency is valued more than being right."
They would rather stick with the wrong position than "flip-flop," he said.
Cramer said that if he were an analyst who recently downgraded this group or a short-seller for homebuilders, he would have a vested interest in seeing these stocks go down.
"The press/analyst/short-selling complex has a bias against being positive," Cramer said. "It's in their interest for the stocks to go down, as they are shorting them."
When he was a journalist, Cramer said, he would never let the facts get in the way of a good story. But now that he's in the business of making people money, he'd rather be right and inconsistent.
From now on, when people ask Cramer why he likes
Procter & Gamble
so much, he said, he's going to point to an article in
The Wall Street Journal
that says P&G is selling its Sure brand of deodorant.
Sure is one of those deodorants that you pass in the aisle without thinking twice about it, he said. The fact is this brand "was not cooking," and Proctor & Gamble knows Sure is not worth retaining.
"A great company prunes so the rest of its brands can grow stronger -- that's the Procter & Gamble way," Cramer said.
Right before the great divide which occurred during the period May 8 to May 11, when the cyclicals peaked and the Procters started coming on, the stock was hurting badly even though the company was doing well, Cramer said.
In addition, there were rumors spread by short-sellers that
was not performing well. But what was really happening was a "vicious rotation," he said.
When the next rotation comes, Procter & Gamble "deserves a premium multiple," Cramer said.
"I am hearing rumbling about how we can be near an exquisite moment to buy oil and oil-service stocks right here," said Cramer.
And although it's "quite tempting to think that we have found a bottom of oil and gas this week," we will not be at a bottom until we have reached $56 a barrel, he said.
"I don't want to change my view because I made that judgment in the cool of the moment -- not in the heat of the moment -- and I believe it's right," Cramer said.
However, if by the end of the week people believe that it doesn't matter that we are very close to an oil bottom, and they like the stocks very much, then they should do some buying -- particularly in the service sector, he said.
Distinguishing between oil and natural gas, Cramer used
as a "proxy," saying that the stock "should be somewhere between $35 and here." Occidental was recently trading at $46.21.
He advised people to still stay away because he believes that the group is still going lower. If people need to be in, he recommended stocks which have yield support, such as
Cramer also told listeners not to "piggyback" off of hedge funds.
Any time you do this you can get hurt, as hedge funds could change positions faster than individual investors and keep their changes secret, he said.
"Hedge funds are not set up for you to make money with them unless you are in them," Cramer said.
Switching tunes, he commented on how there is a big rally in the cyclical stocks today.
Part of this is because these stocks are so low; the other part is because "the economy is not falling of a cliff," Cramer said.
However, the cyclicals are just a trade and "will collapse in the next 48 hours," he said.
is a stock I've liked through the mid-$40s," Cramer told a caller. The stock was recently trading at $56.96.
There are two ways to win with Electronic Arts: either off its earnings or the fact that it could be a takeover target, Cramer said.
"It has a very bright future," he said.
A caller who was up 90% off of
in two years asked what he should do with the stock now that the company recently announced it will be spinning off its
subsidiary. Cramer said it is not done going up.
However, because the caller had gained so much profit from the stock, Cramer suggested the caller take a quarter of his position off the table and play with the house's money.
, which Cramer owns for his charitable trust,
Action Alerts PLUS, is an "undervalued" stock, he told another caller.
Cramer, who has said that he liked the stock because of its big restructuring story and because of Eddie Lampert, added that the company's business has "actually gotten better."
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Sears Holdings.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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