No matter who we want to blame about high oil prices, the takeaway is clear, said Jim Cramer on his
"RealMoney" radio show Monday. Ethanol is the short-term way out of our fuel price jam.
Whether auto companies ever actually make more fuel-efficient vehicles or oil companies invest in alternative energy, oil prices will continue to go higher, Cramer said.
Some analysts say that crude prices could hit $100 a barrel, and Cramer agreed with that assessment, adding that there is evidence that it will be three to five years before any progress is made to bring prices down.
The Wall Street Journal
says that the price of $3 a gallon hasn't changed our gas-guzzling ways, and Cramer said that if this is true, it will be a bit longer before the cry for ethanol reaches a fever pitch.
reporting a 6.8% increase in same-store sales, he added that there is evidence that $3-a-gallon gasoline is not slowing down consumer spending.
But once gasoline prices hit $3.50 or $4, "then we'll hear an even louder call for ethanol," he said. And the play here is to own
Archer Daniels Midland
before this happens.
ADM's focus is on processing and merchandising agricultural products, which includes turning corn into ethanol, he said. But the stock is up huge right now.
Just as with
, profit-takers will come in after the company reports its earnings and send the price down, Cramer said.
He recommended buying the stock only after the company reports earnings and the price falls.
Cramer also recommended that listeners look into
, a supplier of products and services for the aviation, aerospace and defense industries.
He pointed out that
has agreed to pay $1.7 billion for the parts company
because one of its fastest-growing revenue sources is selling spare parts.
He believes that AAR could be next in line, so he advised locking in the big gains made in Aviall and plowing the money into AAR.
Not So Great Expectations
All across the country, protests are taking place that spotlight the immigration issue, Cramer said.
Some want amnesty and eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants, while others want to build a wall around the border and keep everyone out, Cramer said.
But no matter what side you're on, Cramer said, there's a way to make money from the fact that both legal and illegal immigrants wire money to family back home.
According to Cramer,
is the company making money off of all these transactions. And he said that the play is to buy its parent company,
, before it spins off Western Union as a separate entity.
After the spinoff happens, Cramer said the stock will soar and be too expensive to own.
While First Data's future may look bright, he said that things were dim for
, a stock he owns for his
ActionAlerts PLUS charitable trust portfolio.
"Have you ever lost $32 billion?" he asked. "Now imagine doing it in one day. ... That's what happened to Microsoft last week when it reported its earnings."
He called the quarterly report and the subsequent selloff "a lesson in expectations."
The company said that it will make $50 billion next year when Vista goes on sale, but the Vista rollout was supposed to happen this year.
The company's "bread and butter is the personal computer ... which we here on 'RealMoney' believe is a
dying business," he said. Therefore, Cramer said, the company needs Vista in order to at least entice consumers to upgrade.
Plus, Microsoft said it will invest more than analysts had expected in research and development, upping spending to fend off
on the Internet front.
The company also has to spend more to fight
in the video-game space.
Cramer said the competition will inevitably benefit from Microsoft's woes, urging listeners to focus on Yahoo!, a stock he owns for
ActionAlerts PLUS, and Google.
Cramer's radio switchboard was busy as usual, as Cramer fielded calls that ranged from
( ATHR) to
Even though he was bullish on
at $64, Cramer said that he should have told people to ring the register when the stock ran up to $74.
The company reported a "miserable quarter," Cramer said, and he doesn't believe that the company will recover by the next quarter. If he were a holder of the stock, Cramer said, he would wait for a bit of a bounce before letting the stock go.
As for UPS, Cramer acknowledged that the stock had stagnated between $71 and $74 for long time before heading toward $80.
"A lot of people lost faith in UPS," but he said that he wouldn't give up on the company.
Instead, he would use this minor pullback "to be bigger in the stock," which he believes is every bit as good as
. UPS has lagged, but Cramer believes that it will catch up.
He said that he has been "quite surprised" by how much Atheros stock has pulled back, and that he likes the networking technology company, which creates secure, high-performance wireless products.
He added that Michael Comeau and Will Gabrielski, co-authors of the
newsletter, have been waiting for the stock to come in.
In this situation, you make the move the minute the pullback comes, Cramer said. The stock has fallen from $28 a month ago to $23, which he said is an overreaction. "I would be a buyer."
He added that
( OPWV) has also pulled back enough to make it a buy.
A caller asked about
, which reports earnings this week and ran into problems when its
order didn't come though in the last quarter.
Cramer said he isn't sure that the company will get its
order this time around either, and that, like Moody's, it will take more a single quarter to turn around.
But Powerwave makes amplifiers for towers, a business that is hot right now, he said, adding that in this space
Crown Castle International
is one of his favorites.
He said that it's time to sell
North Fork Bancorp
( NFB) because it is in an "arbitrage situation."
The company got its takeover bid from
Capital One Financial
and is just shy of its 52-week high, he said.
Do not wait around to see how much higher this thing can go, he said. "We got the big win ... we sell it and move on to the next big win."
He told a caller that he believes that
can hit $600, and added that it may be a good idea to own even just one share.
He said that
is a good stock to own because once the company gets breakfast together the stock will soar.
And he said that
is not done going up.
The company "delivered a remarkable quarter," driven by its great controls business, he said. Cramer suggested waiting for a pullback under $80 before putting any more money into the stock.
To see the most recent edition of The RealMoney Radio Recap in its entirety, please click here. This recap is published every day around 3 p.m. ET.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Yahoo! and Microsoft.
James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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