Jim Cramer isn't worried about a housing bubble, but he is worried about the
determination to prick one, he said Thursday on his
"RealMoney" radio show.
New-home sales remain robust, and with the exception of interest-only loans, Cramer doesn't see anything alarming in housing-market fundamentals. But the Fed seems intent on putting the kibosh on the entire housing market, Cramer said.
So Cramer is concerned about housing stocks such as
, which reported a "picture perfect" quarter Thursday but saw its stock trade down. Action like that is the "death knell," said Cramer, because analysts are likely to downgrade Toll Brothers.
And "why not downgrade it?" asked Cramer, who noted that Toll Brothers' stock is up 120% over a year ago.
The fundamentals are great, Cramer said, but sometimes the fundamentals don't matter. Psychology and risk-reward perception sometimes matter more, and "neither are very good for Toll right now," he said. "You're going to catch a downgrade," Cramer said. "Don't be in."
A caller wanted to know if
Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia
was a buy, given that her new TV show is starting soon. "I liked it more at $25 than at $28," said Cramer.
That said, Cramer forecasts MSO is going up because more details about her TV show are being fleshed out and because people are starting to realize that, like Oprah Winfrey, Martha Stewart is an "incredibly investable person. That alone is worth a billion dollars" in market cap for the stock, Cramer said.
Additionally, CEO Susan Lyne is "bankable" too, Cramer said -- perhaps worth half a billion in market cap.
"People are looking at the personalities" and are buying the stock based on that, Cramer said. "The future is very bright," Cramer said. He believes the stock can go to $35.
As for the large short position in MSO, Cramer said shorts are valuing the stock as if it were a traditional media company like
. You can't look at the stock that way, he said, because of the personalities.
Another caller wanted to know Cramer's thoughts on
. Cramer said he was not as negative on IDCC as he used to be when it appeared its only business was pursuing intellectual property lawsuits. He said the company was more actively managed now. Nevertheless, IDCC is not a best-of-breed play in the wireless sector. He said he would sell IDCC and buy
Another caller asked about
, which preannounced a penny-better-than-expected quarterly profit Wednesday. Cramer said Coach was "for me" and added companies usually preannounce if profit will be at least 5% better than expectations.
Coach is a "very high-end, well-run institution," said Cramer, who is bullish on high-end, luxury businesses in general. Other stocks Cramer said he is bullish on in the luxury market are
In his "Stump Cramer" segment, where listeners ask about obscure stocks, Cramer was asked about
( RMX). Cramer said Star Scientific was a "promote," making a type of tobacco that might not cause cancer. However, it was "apparently one bad-tasting cigarette," said Cramer. Cramer was negative on Ready Mix, saying the cement company was "too tied to housing."
Cramer was stumped by
( ACTI) and
. However, he was intrigued by Zumiez and planned to get up to speed on the teen action-sports retailer soon.
A caller asked about
. Cramer said the company was being hurt by the perception it was simply a Harry Potter stock. It's "dead money," he said. The company "needs to have more stuff besides Harry Potter that matters."
Finally, a caller asked about
. Cramer said the stock was up 120% from where he bought it and that he felt "greedy." So, he recently took some off the table.
"I had a huge gain, and I didn't want to give it back," Cramer said, adding that he's "playing with the house's money now." For these reasons, he couldn't advocate buying the stock here.
However, if it goes below $40, he would be a buyer. EnCana traded recently at $45.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long EnCana.
James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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