This column was originally published on RealMoney on Aug 9. at 1:35 p.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
Tough to get as bearish as people would sure like me to. I am inundated with bears talking about how the market's become way too speculative and worrisome. I have people saying that things are falling apart fast and the time to get out is now.
Yet, I am stuck with the fundamentals. And although the back-to-school season for jeans may be soggy, the back-to-school season for tech is going extremely well, with supplies tightening, PCs flying out the door and, in general, a strength that is, well, typical of what happens before a big tech rally in the fall.
Remember, you always want to position yourself for what's about to happen. I believe it is obvious that the yield curve is about to go totally and completely flat, which is terrible for the financials. I believe that the change in the Medicare legislation is going to storm in and make everyone want to own a health care cost-containment stock.
I believe that oil is staying high and aerospace and defense are staying strong. I believe that the tech cycle this fall will be stronger than at any time in the last five years, augmented by incredibly strong sales from
Xbox, which might be the most visible catalyst out there, and I believe you need to own some soft-goods stocks for those who will say that the
is going to cause a recession. (You are seeing signs of this in the strength of cable stocks, which are very recession-resistant.)
It's the tech world that has me most excited. For the first time in ages, both Microsoft and
look like they will be hitting simultaneous strides. When was the last time that happened? How hard is it to be bearish when it does? Extremely hard.
So, I am not taking counsel of the fears. I hope we get another down leg tomorrow so I can put some cash to work.
But I am not counting on it. We are already too oversold to go down hard.
Stop fretting. It's not a bad moment. ... Unless you run a bank that's not based on customer service! (Hint:
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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Commerce Bancorp and Intel.
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